Tuesday Briefing: What’s Next for Iran

Iran’s leaders move to project stability after the president’s death

The Iranian authorities have aimed to project order and control after President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian were killed in a helicopter crash. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that the first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, would assume the role of acting president and must organize elections within 50 days.

Here is the latest.

Raisi’s death not only sets the stage for new presidential elections but also opens a new chapter of instability for the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s long-simmering shadow war with Israel burst out into the open after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, and the countries traded direct attacks. Domestically, many Iranians are calling for an end to clerical rule, and corruption and international sanctions have ravaged the economy. Khamenei is 85 and in declining health. Raisi, a conservative who crushed dissent, had been viewed as a possible successor.

Crash details: Iranian state media blamed a “technical failure.” Some suggested that decades of international sanctions played a role by preventing Iran from buying new Western planes or spare parts.

Analysis: Iran’s next leaders — who are almost certain to be hard-liners — will have to choose whether they will continue to operate with caution in their confrontations with the U.S.

Arrest warrants sought for Israeli and Hamas leaders

Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, has requested arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza. Khan wants to charge the two with crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza and the Oct. 7 attack.

The prosecutor also applied for warrants for Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, as well as Muhammad Deif, Hamas’s military leader, and Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s Qatar-based political leader.

Judges must approve Khan’s request, but Israel isn’t a member of the court and doesn’t recognize its jurisdiction in Israel or Gaza, making this a largely symbolic gesture. If warrants are issued, those named could be arrested in any of the court’s 124 member nations, which include most European countries but not the U.S.

Reaction: President Biden condemned Khan’s decision to seek warrants for Israeli and Hamas officials at the same time. He said that “whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas.”

Details: Khan said he believed that the members of Hamas named were responsible for murder as a crime against humanity, hostage taking, rape and torture for the Oct. 7 raid.

He also said the Israeli leaders bore criminal responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity, including using starvation as a weapon of war and “directing attacks against a civilian population.”

Prosecution rests in Trump’s trial

The marathon cross-examination of Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s former fixer and the key witness in his trial, ended yesterday. With that, the prosecution’s case concluded.

Cohen admitted to all manner of bad behavior, including lying, bullying and theft from the Trump Organization. Trump’s lead lawyer, Todd Blanche — who has elicited testimony from Cohen about lying under oath in past cases — also sought to cast him as profiting off his association with Trump.

What’s next: Closing arguments will most likely not occur until next Tuesday, according to the judge.

Blanche suggested to the judge that the defense could call three witnesses. He did not mention Trump; the former president could take the stand in his own defense, but people close to the case are skeptical that he will. Here’s how the rest of the trial could play out.

Muslims in India are struggling to live and raise their children in what is now a largely Hindu-first country. They know India’s leaders do not want them. They struggle to rent homes and feel dear friends pulling away. Their neighbors are cold. They wonder if they should leave for good.

“It is a lifeless life,” said Ziya Us Salam, a writer who lives on the outskirts of Delhi with his family.

CONVERSATION STARTERS

How big is Taylor Swift?

Taylor Swift is everywhere. “The Tortured Poets Department” earned Swift her eighth Billboard No. 1 album since 2020. In February, she became the first artist to win a fourth Grammy for album of the year.

But how does her success stack up against her peers, like Beyoncé and Drake? And what about the greatest artists in pop history? Even Billy Joel said he could only compare her popularity to Beatlemania. So we crunched the numbers. This is what we learned.