The Yemen-based branch of Al Qaeda said on Sunday that its leader, Khaled Batarfi, had died.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, known as A.Q.A.P., released a video announcing Mr. Batarfi’s death, showing images of him wrapped in a white funeral shroud overlaid with a black Al Qaeda flag. It did not explain how he had died.
The United States government once considered Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to be one of the world’s most dangerous terrorist organizations. The group tried and failed at least three times to blow up American airliners, and has been targeted by American drone strikes for two decades. But in that time, its power and ability to carry out attacks outside of Yemen have both diminished, according to scholars who study the group.
“It will be interesting to observe whether the group charts a new course in coming months,” said Gregory D. Johnsen, a Yemen expert at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “A.Q.A.P. has struggled in recent years, losing territory and recruits and, at the moment, is a shadow of its former self.”
In the video statement, Ibrahim Al-Qosi, a Sudanese senior leader in the group, expressed his “heartfelt condolences and sincere regret” over the death of Mr. Batarfi.
He said that the group’s new leader would be Saad bin Atef al-Awlaki, of Yemen. The United States previously offered a $6 million reward for information about Mr. al-Awlaki, and $5 million for tips about Mr. Batarfi.
Born in Saudi Arabia, Mr. Batarfi traveled in the 1990s to Afghanistan and fought alongside the Taliban before joining Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen, according to a U.S. informational sheet about him. He was believed to have been in his 40s when he died.
A United Nations report in January estimated that the group had about 3,000 fighters scattered among different Yemeni provinces, and that it had faced operational and financial challenges, but “persists as a threat.”
“Although in decline, A.Q.A.P. remains the most effective terrorist group in Yemen with intent to conduct operations in the region and beyond,” the report’s authors wrote.
Yemen has been torn apart by war over the past decade, as an Iran-backed militia, the Houthis, seized control of much of the country, and Saudi Arabia — Yemen’s neighbor to the north — led a bombing campaign in an attempt to rout them. Hundreds of thousands of people have died from violence, hunger and disease.
The Saudi-led coalition pulled back in recent years, leaving the Houthis entrenched in power in the north, including in the Yemeni capital of Sana. In the south, the most powerful entity is an Emirati-backed armed separatist group called the Southern Transitional Council. The separatist group and other Yemeni armed groups have intermittently clashed with Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
The elevation of a new leader for the group “doesn’t change much in terms of intent,” said Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group, a security consulting firm based in New York.
“Like all of his predecessors, al-Awlaki has been vocal calling for attacks on the U.S.,” he said. “But the question comes down to capability.”
Instability in Yemen — as the Houthis launch attacks on ships in the Red Sea in a campaign that it says is solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and a U.S.-led coalition carries out airstrikes against the group — might “provide an opening” for A.Q.A.P. to recruit and rebuild its operations, Mr. Clarke said.
“That will be the overarching priority for al-Awlaki, to restore A.Q.A.P. to relevance within the broader jihadist movement,” he said.
