Israel and Hamas have been talking for months about a deal to release the hostages held in Gaza and to halt the war there. Today, I’ll explain why they haven’t agreed on a renewed cease-fire — and what will determine whether they do.
At times, Israel has been a reluctant negotiator. It has been hesitant to withdraw its troops, free more Palestinian prisoners or allow Gazans to return to their homes — or what remains of them — in the north.
But American officials said that in recent weeks Israel had made several major concessions. Now Hamas seems like the reluctant party. It has not embraced the Israeli compromises, frustrating American attempts to stop, at least temporarily, the war in Gaza.
A holdout
The negotiations have real consequences: For weeks, Israel has said it is preparing to invade Rafah, where around one million Palestinian civilians and thousands of Hamas fighters have taken refuge. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, pledged yesterday to strike Rafah with or without a hostage deal. Thousands more civilians could die.
But some involved in the discussions — Americans, Egyptians and Qataris have been mediating — worry that Hamas appears willing to sacrifice even more Palestinian civilians. Its officials believe that the deaths in Gaza erode support for Israel around the world.
Americans do not want Israel to strike Rafah with a major ground offensive, at least not without a better plan to protect civilians. A hostage agreement appears to be the best way to at least delay such an operation.
In early April, William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, who has been the lead hostage negotiator, laid out a new plan. It gave in to a key Hamas demand: Palestinians taking refuge in southern Gaza would be free to return to their homes in the north as part of an initial hostages-for-prisoners exchange.
Hamas said no. It told negotiators that it could not meet one of the conditions, because it did not still have 40 living hostages who were female, ill or elderly. And it was not willing to liberate captured soldiers to make up the difference, at least not without a promise from Israel to end the war.
After the Hamas rejection, negotiators scrambled to make a new plan. The U.S. also put pressure on Israel to make a deal. This week Israel conceded, telling negotiators it would accept fewer hostages — 33 — and release more Palestinians from its prisons for each hostage set free. Hamas has said it is considering the new Israeli offer.
American officials believe that Israel has conceded everything it can, raising doubts in Washington about whether Hamas really wants a deal. Hamas, of course, believes there is one more concession Israel could give: announce an end to the war.
Elusive endgame
This is a familiar conundrum in the Middle East. Every Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiation has stumbled over what arbiters call “the final status.” And so, from the beginning, the American strategy has been to work for a temporary cease-fire — and then use that to bring home hostages, release Palestinian prisoners and expand humanitarian aid. The first hostage release in exchange for a temporary halt broke down. But American officials hope that another release might help cajole both sides toward a permanent cease-fire.
Some people briefed on the negotiations blame Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas military leader who helped mastermind the Oct. 7 attacks, for the impasse. He has monitored the talks from his hiding space deep in the tunnels below Gaza. Sinwar is protected, according to American and Israeli officials, by at least 15 hostages he is using as human shields. Those captives prevent Israel from assassinating him.
While American officials have long understood that Hamas does not intend to release the Israeli soldiers it holds without a promise of a more lasting cease-fire, Washington hoped Sinwar would see that he could help Gazans by doing what was necessary to halt the war — perhaps releasing the remaining women and older men.
Sending home those hostages, Americans hope, would help Israel see that it had achieved enough in its war. True, Hamas is not destroyed, but it is in no position to mount another attack like Oct. 7. Its ability to command forces is dramatically weakened.
But that all requires Hamas saying yes to a first phase. So far, the answer has been no.
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