“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
✓“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
Let’s be real: The best picture race is locked up for “Oppenheimer.” Christopher Nolan gave Oscar voters an IMAX-sized helping of their favorite genre — the great-man-of-history biopic — and after the movie made nearly a billion dollars worldwide, its path to the top Oscar was clear.
Still, why not add some stakes to the situation? See whether you can sabotage the people in your Oscar pool by convincing them that a dark-horse candidate can topple Nolan’s mighty contender.
Suggest, for example, that “The Holdovers” may mirror the little-film-that-could trajectory of “CODA” (though you’d better leave out that “The Holdovers” didn’t win the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards, as “CODA” so tellingly did). Note that the expansive international contingent of the academy could swing things toward “Anatomy of a Fall” (though if that were the case, we would have seen signs of it at last month’s BAFTA ceremony). Or mention that the path to best picture tends to go through the screenplay categories, and since “Oppenheimer” is in danger of losing a writing trophy to “American Fiction” or “Barbie,” maybe those movies are the real threats.
Say anything you want! Have fun causing a little chaos. Just be sure to mark down “Oppenheimer” on your own ballot, because it’s winning.
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
✓Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Though the 53-year-old Nolan has come to be regarded as the premier blockbuster director of his generation, one feat he still hasn’t managed is winning an Academy Award. That will finally change this weekend, completing a journey that started 15 years ago when the Oscars expanded the amount of best picture nominees after his film “The Dark Knight” was snubbed in the two top categories. Now, Nolan will win both.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
✓Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
Giamatti has a “he’s due” veteran narrative, and Cooper gave the sort of transformative performance that voters often flip for. But it’s the “Oppenheimer” star Murphy who is best positioned to take this Oscar for holding down the huge ensemble of the best picture front-runner. Contenders who have won the SAG and BAFTA awards, as Murphy has, don’t tend to falter at the finish line.
Best Actress
Annette Bening, “Nyad”
✓Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
With so many of the top races sewn up, this will be Oscar night’s most suspenseful major category. Stone dominates every scene of “Poor Things,” but she already won the Oscar for “La La Land” and voters do factor that into the decision to bestow another. Though Gladstone may be the only chance at a win for the fading “Killers of the Flower Moon,” hers would be a historic victory for Native American performers and she just won the SAG Award, typically this race’s best predictor. I’m leaning Gladstone in what looks to be a photo finish.
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
✓Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
Oscar voters love to see a movie star stretch, and after a decade spent suiting up for Marvel, Downey proved how limber he could still be with this seething dramatic performance as Oppenheimer’s political rival, Lewis Strauss. It helps, too, that though his “Oppenhomies” Nolan and Murphy operated at something of a remove during awards season, Downey is the consummate Hollywood smoothie, winning over ballroom after ballroom with his warm and witty acceptance speeches. Thrice-nominated, this is his time to finally bring home the gold.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera, “Barbie”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
✓Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Randolph has so firmly swept this awards season that I halfway expect her to repeat next year, simply out of habit. Her performance as a grieving cook in “The Holdovers” is finely felt and gives voters their best opportunity to recognize a film that many of them loved. Her win is so certain that this might as well be the free space on your bingo card.
✓“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“May December”
“Maestro”
“Past Lives”
We’ve got a solid three-way race here. “Anatomy of a Fall” was strong enough to snag a prized best director nomination, and though it’s got no shot at beating Nolan in that category, voters could reward it here instead. I’ve also heard from many members who are voting with their heart for either “Past Lives” or “The Holdovers.” In the end, I project that the late-season momentum of “Anatomy of a Fall” will put the film over the top.
Best Adapted Screenplay
✓“American Fiction”
“Barbie”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
This, too, is a three-way race. The best picture winner almost always takes a screenplay trophy first, though the “Oppenheimer” sweep so far hasn’t extended to this category. Meanwhile, “Barbie” had hoped to qualify as an original screenplay until the academy ruled it was an adapted work and must therefore compete in a tougher category. I project the ultimate winner will be “American Fiction,” a well-liked movie about writing (based on Percival Everett’s 2001 novel, “Erasure”) that even pulled off a surprise victory in this race at the BAFTAs.
Best Animated Feature
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
✓“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“Robot Dreams”
The inventive blockbuster “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” won the Producers Guild Award but may be dinged by voters as the middle installment of a planned trilogy. (Though the first “Spider-Verse” won in this category, the only sequels that have been victorious were stand-alone “Toy Story” films.) It’s going up against Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron,” a highbrow pick that will be popular with international voters and has picked up trophies from BAFTA and the Golden Globes. I truly believe this contest is coin-flip close, though I’m giving the edge to “Spider-Verse.”
Best Documentary Feature
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
“The Eternal Memory”
“Four Daughters”
“To Kill a Tiger”
✓“20 Days in Mariupol”
Though it’s tough to watch, with multiple scenes of death and dismemberment, “20 Days in Mariupol,” about the Russian siege of the Ukrainian city, feels all the more vital in a year so filled with war and atrocity.
Best International Feature
“The Teachers’ Lounge,” Germany
“Io Capitano,” Italy
“Perfect Days,” Japan
“Society of the Snow,” Spain
✓“The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
Simply put, you should never bet against the best picture nominee in this category. Had France submitted “Anatomy of a Fall,” we’d have a real race. Without it, “The Zone of Interest” wins in a rout.
Best Cinematography
“El Conde”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
✓“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
The push to see “Oppenheimer” on the biggest IMAX screen possible added hundreds of millions to its box office totals and made its Oscar win for cinematography a foregone conclusion.
Best Original Score
“American Fiction”
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
✓“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Oppenheimer” has more score than most movies have minutes. It’s hard to imagine this three-hour drama flying by without the maelstrom of Ludwig Goransson’s music providing wall-to-wall accompaniment.
Best Song
“The Fire Inside” (“Flamin’ Hot”)
“I’m Just Ken” (“Barbie”)
“It Never Went Away” (“American Symphony”)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
✓“What Was I Made For?” (“Barbie”)
Though Ryan Gosling’s live rendition of “I’m Just Ken” will almost certainly be an Oscar-ceremony highlight, it competes in this category against Billie Eilish’s “Barbie” tune “What Was I Made For?” — and Oscar voters love Billie Eilish, who previously won in this category for her James Bond song “No Time to Die.” And this song is even better than that one!
Best Sound
“The Creator”
“Maestro”
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One”
✓“Oppenheimer”
“The Zone of Interest”
There’s room for a surprise here, as “The Zone of Interest” pulled off a BAFTA victory in this category for its subtle, unnerving soundscapes. Still, the gale-force pummel of “Oppenheimer” ought to win the day.
Best Editing
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
✓“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
Up against four well-edited but hardly flashy nominees, the florid timeline-mixing of “Oppenheimer” offers voters a standout choice.
Best Production Design
✓“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
With its plastic-fantastic world full of ingeniously assembled dream houses, “Barbie” has a strong shot at winning a second Oscar here. Can it fend off “Poor Things,” which picked up a BAFTA trophy for its surreal sets? This race will be close.
Best Costume Design
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
✓“Poor Things”
“Barbie” had audiences dressing up to go to the theater and utterly dominated last year’s crop of Halloween costumes. Still, Oscar voters have proven time and time again that when it comes to this category, they prefer a period piece with plenty of dramatic gowns. Knowing that, the eccentrically costumed “Poor Things” should prevail.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Golda”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
✓“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”
Which is the more powerful prosthetic: Bradley Cooper’s fake nose or Willem Dafoe’s Frankenstein chin? The quite literal face-off between “Maestro” and “Poor Things” has confounded me: Voters typically prefer the transformation and aging on display in “Maestro,” but “Poor Things” is the stronger across-the-board contender. If you want to play it safe, pick “Maestro.” If you’re more inclined to follow a hunch, as I am, then “Poor Things” is the spoiler.
Best Visual Effects
“The Creator”
✓“Godzilla Minus One”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Napoleon”
Could the nominee with the lowest budget win the visual-effects Oscar? I suspect “Godzilla Minus One,” which cost only $15 million, could pull off an upset here: Its director, Takashi Yamazaki, and his effects team have made an endearing press push stateside, toting a Godzilla figurine to awards shows and wowing voters with everything the film was able to accomplish with so little.
Best Animated Short
“Letter to a Pig”
“Ninety-Five Senses”
“Our Uniform”
“Pachyderme”
✓“War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
Well-animated and emotionally obvious, the antiwar short “War Is Over!” has everything it takes to win over Oscar voters, including a closing-credits song from John Lennon.
Best Documentary Short
“The ABCs of Book Banning”
“The Barber of Little Rock”
“Island in Between”
✓“The Last Repair Shop”
“Nai Nai & Wai Po”
I wouldn’t count out “The ABCs of Book Banning,” especially since the director Sheila Nevins is the well-connected former president of HBO Documentary Films. But “The Last Repair Shop,” about craftspeople working to repair the musical instruments lent at public schools, has plenty of real-world resonance and is much more artfully made.
Best Live-Action Short
“The After”
“Invincible”
“Knight of Fortune”
“Red, White and Blue”
✓“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
Wes Anderson could win his first Oscar for the Roald Dahl adaptation “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” though the things voters usually gravitate to in this race — political resonance, tear-jerking emotion and a clear-cut message — are not qualities that the highbrow “Henry Sugar” has in abundance. By contrast, “Red, White and Blue,” which stars Brittany Snow as a young mother contemplating abortion, ticks every single box of a typical live-action short winner. This race will ultimately depend on whether voters watch all five nominees or just default to the biggest name.
