Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off Thursday night for the first general-election debate of the 2024 presidential election cycle. Below, two political experts weigh in on what each candidate needs to do to win.
The Five Things Biden Needs to Do
By Chris Whipple
Chris Whipple is the author of “The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden’s White House” and “The Gatekeepers: How the White House Chiefs of Staff Define Every Presidency.”
1. Be energetic and engaged. Mr. Trump and his MAGA allies have tried to portray the president as a doddering geriatric who can’t complete a sentence. Simply appearing engaged, alert and coherent will be a victory for Mr. Biden. Mr. Biden would also do well to remember this fact: Incumbent presidents almost always lose the first debate. That’s true of even superlative political talents like Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Among the reasons for this are hubris and lack of practice; incumbent presidents are used to being saluted, not challenged.
2. Drive the contrast with Mr. Trump. Mr. Biden must recast the race from a referendum on his presidency to a stark choice between himself and Mr. Trump. “I used to say to President Obama, ‘If you’re on defense about your record, we’re losing,’” says Jim Messina, who ran Mr. Obama’s winning 2012 campaign. Mr. Biden should remind voters that his predecessor lost more jobs than any president since Herbert Hoover and cut taxes for the ultrawealthy and corporations. He should emphasize: “Donald Trump said he was going to pass an infrastructure bill. He couldn’t. I did. Donald Trump said he was going to bring back manufacturing jobs. He couldn’t. I did.”
3. Outline a second-term agenda. Voters don’t reward presidents for what they’ve done; they want to know what they’ll do in the future. Mr. Biden should pick up on the American comeback narrative from his State of the Union speech and detail his priorities for a second term: codifying Roe v. Wade; cutting taxes for the middle class; extending student loans; combating climate change; and perhaps above all, making goods and housing affordable for working families. Admit that prices are too high and explain how he’ll bring them down. Mr. Biden can frame the election as a choice between a president who cares about the common good and a felon who cares only about himself and retribution.
4. Stress the threat to reproductive rights and democracy. These have been potent issues for Democrats in recent elections across the country. In November, they will be potent again. Mr. Biden should repeat Mr. Trump’s own words, like the former president’s boast, “I was able to kill Roe v. Wade,” and his remark that there should be “some form of punishment” for women who have abortions. If Mr. Trump asserts that he’s leaving abortion to the states, Mr. Biden can reply: “When he says ‘states’ rights’, he really means taking away a woman’s right. It’s code for outlawing abortion.”
5. Pick the right spots to go toe-to-toe with Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump is almost certain to try to rattle the president with nonstop attacks. Mr. Biden cannot and should not respond to every jab — but he should be prepared if Mr. Trump comes after his son Hunter. In that case, Mr. Biden can offer a crisp retort: “Last time I checked, you were guilty of 34 felonies. I’m guilty of loving my son.”
That is how Mr. Biden can win the debate. There is at least one way he could lose it. The obvious one is to appear confused or give ammunition to those who say he is too old.
But there is a risk to appearing too energetic. The president’s friends know that, when provoked, he can blow his stack. Mr. Biden has a prickly disposition and a fiery temper — which he should control. He won the first 2020 debate with Mr. Trump by not losing his composure when his opponent went after him with a fire hose of invective. Mr. Biden should stay calm and let Mr. Trump rant about sharks and electrocution.
The Five Things Trump Needs to Do
By Kristen Soltis Anderson
Kristen Soltis Anderson is a contributing Opinion writer for The New York Times. She is a Republican pollster and a speaker, a commentator and the author of “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up).”
1. Talk about the economy whenever possible. Battleground state voters in the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll put the economy as their top issue. When asked who they think would do better on the issue of the economy, these battleground state voters give Mr. Trump an advantage of a whopping 58 percent to 36 percent over Mr. Biden. Mr. Trump will set himself up to win the debate if he is able to stay on this message of economic prosperity and back it up with a few clear examples of policies, like expanded domestic energy production or reduced regulatory burden, that he would propose while in office.
2. Focus on what matters to voters, not on himself. This debate is likely to be watched by millions of people who are not political junkies or hard partisans. It will be the first time in a while that many low-engagement voters will see Mr. Trump speak at length. Mr. Biden will no doubt try to goad Mr. Trump into angrily dwelling on his felony conviction and other charges. To win the debate, and the election, Mr. Trump must remember that swing voters do not want a president who will make his time onstage — or in office — an exercise in personal score-settling.
3. Offer a clear, simple answer when asked about abortion and reproductive health issues. Mr. Trump was the president who nominated three of the justices on the Supreme Court responsible for the Dobbs decision, which opened the door to greater abortion restrictions. He has said he is proud of that fact, even as he has tried to dodge further questioning. But the issue poses political peril given that his own coalition is divided on whether abortion ought to be mostly legal or mostly illegal. He will need to be clear about what restrictions on abortion, if any, he thinks are appropriate, and what protections he believes ought to be put into place for very popular things like contraception and in vitro fertilization. “We’re looking at that, and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly” is not a winning answer.
4. Make the case that he represents strength, at home and abroad. Americans think Mr. Biden is likable, but in a March Gallup poll, only 38 percent said they think he is a strong and decisive leader. Meanwhile, Americans do not find Mr. Trump likable, but 57 percent do think he is a strong and decisive leader. Mr. Trump also holds an advantage on who voters think is most able to “manage the government effectively.” This is the thread that links together issues like crime, immigration and inflation, where Mr. Trump has an advantage.
5. Most important, stay energetic and on topic. Only 29 percent of Americans think Mr. Biden is “mentally sharp,” a figure that has declined steadily over the three and a half years of his presidency. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have had questions raised about their fitness for office. Mr. Trump can do himself a large favor by avoiding raising further questions about his own stamina and focus. He must display the qualities he claims Mr. Biden does not possess: lucidity, energy, coherence.
That is how Mr. Trump can win the debate. But there are no guarantees. Mr. Trump loves to say things that excite and energize his most ardent, core supporters. He enjoys berating his enemies, discussing the vengeance he’d like to unleash, harping on the ways the deck is stacked against him. But the voters he needs to speak to aren’t the ones who are already on his team. He could easily throw the debate away if he treats it as an opportunity to simply “play the hits” that draw applause at his rallies.
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