How Bad is the L.A. Forecast, and When Will Firefighters Catch a Break?

How Bad is the L.A. Forecast, and When Will Firefighters Catch a Break?

  • Post category:USA

Los Angeles residents are facing another round of fire danger as gusty Santa Ana winds were expected to intensify once again over the next few days.

The National Weather Service has warned these winds could lead to “explosive fire growth,” prompting rare, “particularly dangerous situation” red flag warnings for parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties.

The Weather Service began using the “particularly dangerous situation” red flag warning in recent years to alert firefighters to types of conditions where fires are more likely to spread, said Todd Hall, a meteorologist at the Weather Service in Los Angeles. The intention had been to use them once every three to five years, he said; two have been issued in the last week.

The latest warnings will be in place from early Tuesday morning until noon on Wednesday, when gusts from 45 to 70 miles an hour are expected to batter the region. While not as severe as those last week, which fueled the destructive Palisades and Eaton fires, these winds still pose a significant threat that large fires may spread quickly.

In addition, across the wider region, longer-term warnings for fire weather from the Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center have been upgraded to “extreme,” the highest classification. In areas such as Ventura Valley and the San Bernardino Mountains, wind gusts exceeding 50 m.p.h. will combine with extremely dry air to create hazardous conditions from through Wednesday.

By Tuesday morning, gusts of over 50 miles per hour had begun in the mountains, and they will become more widespread and then move out into the valleys and then the coasts as the day progresses. Forecasters said this is a typical Santa Ana wind event, with a brief lull wind winds anticipated Tuesday afternoon, and strong gusts picking up again in intensity later in the day and continue through Wednesday morning.

The winds that moved in late Monday are the fourth — and last — round in a series of Santa Ana events that began last week and have hampered firefighters’ efforts to control the blazes that destroyed several Los Angeles neighborhoods.

Looking ahead, winds are expected to weaken on Thursday, though strong gusts may still occur, and the very dry conditions that have helped these fires spread will persist.

There is some good news, however. Starting Thursday night, a weather system will move eastward, shifting winds to the northwest on Friday. This will bring cooler, ocean-based winds and clouds to the coast and valleys. According to Mr. Hall, this shift will help boost humidity levels and bring much needed cooler air, which will really help firefighters get ahead.

But Los Angeles, and the vegetation that covers it, are still starved for moisture. Most locations south of Ventura County have recorded only about a quarter-inch of rain or less in the last eight months. The Los Angeles area has received only sprinklings of rain since April. San Diego and Riverside have logged even less.

Another prolonged period of heightened fire-weather concerns could return early next week. Forecasters warned that they do not have a high confidence in a wind event happening on Monday, but they do say there is a at least some chance that a weak to moderate event could occur.

Mr. Hall said there may be a chance of some rain next week, but it’s unlikely to be a substantial amount. “Our long-range models point toward the first part of February for something more significant,” he said.

Amy Graff and Judson Jones contributed reporting.

by NYTimes