The United States faces an “increasingly fragile global order” that’s strained by competition from adversarial world powers and foreign humanitarian disasters fueling migration, a U.S. spy report says.
The Intelligence Community released its annual threat assessment report that “focuses on the most direct, serious threats” facing the country over the next year.
Not surprisingly, “an ambitious but anxious” China and a “confrontational” Russia are the biggest threats.
And overseas conflicts orchestrated by terrorist groups have far-reaching effects. The report mentioned the Oct. 7 invasion of Israel, which has sparked months of protests and hostilities throughout the U.S.
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Soldiers exit their cars to take up positions during military drills in Jiangxi, China, Jan. 29, 2023. (CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
The 41-page report, released in February, includes several threats, along with regional instability that will demand the U.S.’s attention “as states and non-state actors struggle in this evolving global order.”
Haiti’s civil unrest, which has broken out in civil war, and Venezula’s instability exacerbated by corrupt regimes that are backed by China, Iran and Russia are forcing citizens to flee, which is fueling America’s immigration spike.
These are three threats outlined by the Intelligence Community.
An armed member of the G9 and Family gang patrols a roadblock in the Delmas 6 neighborhood of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, March 11. (AP Photo/Odelyn Joseph)
1. China
The report specifically mentioned four countries — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — but none of them pose a greater threat than China, according to the report.
“China has the capability to directly compete with the U.S. and U.S. allies and to alter the rules-based global order in ways that support Beijing’s power and form of governance over that of the U.S.,” the report says.
There’s concern that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will attempt to influence the 2024 U.S. elections “at some level … to sideline critics of China and magnify U.S. society divisions.”
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“PRC actors have increased their capabilities to conduct covert influence operations and disseminate disinformation,” the spy report says. “Even if Beijing sets limits on these activities, individuals not under its direct supervision may attempt election influence activities they perceive are in line with Beijing’s goals.”
President Xi Jinping still sees Taiwan as rightfully part of the People’s Republic of China. An always-looming potential invasion similar to Russia’s attack on Ukraine is a “flashpoint” for confrontation between China and the U.S., the report says.
China is America’s greatest competition in a technological arms race as artificial intelligence advancements explode, and Beijing is “trying to fast-track” its advancements.
Members of Taiwan’s Navy navigate onboard a special operation boat during a drill for the media to show combat readiness ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays on the waters near a military base in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, Jan. 31, 2024. (REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins)
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2. Russia
Like China, it’s no surprise Russia is high up in a 41-page report about threats to America and its allies.
“Russia will remain a serious foreign influence threat because of its wide-ranging efforts to try to divide Western alliances, undermine U.S. global standing, and sow domestic discord, including among voters inside the U.S. and U.S. partners around the world,” the Intelligence Community report says.
Vladamir Putin and the country suffered “enormous damage” after invading Ukraine, which mounted an unexpected defense.
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Russia is like a limping wild animal that “almost certainly” doesn’t want any direct military conflict with the U.S. and NATO forces, but there’s still the threat of nuclear weapons and chemical warfare.
Russia “maintains the largest and most diverse nuclear weapons stockpile,” including long-range capabilities and underwater delivery systems designed to penetrate or bypass U.S. missile defenses.
There have been at least two recent uses of chemical weapons in assassination attempts, in 2020 and in 2018.
Russian soldiers patrol a street April 11, 2022, in Volnovakha in the Donetsk region. The picture was taken during a trip organized by the Russian military. (Alexandaer Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images)
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3. Immigration
The report details several countries being torn apart by domestic unrest, government corruption and economic discontent, which fuels cycles of insurrections and violence.
Six countries’ current situations are laid out in the report, including Haiti, which descended into civil war led by warlord Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier, and Venezuela’s government corruption.
The Haitian government lost its grip on warring gangs, and the Haitian National Police is severely understaffed and overwhelmed by the gangs.
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The report was released before gangs freed 4,000 inmates after a days-long gun battle with police in early March.
Gang Leader Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier patrolling the streets with G9 federation gang members in the Delmas 3 area Feb. 22, 2024, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. (Giles Clarke/Getty Images)
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In Venezuela, disputed President Nicolas Maduro is more like a dictator and will likely hold onto power. Maduro’s regime is backed by China, Russia and Iran, which allows the country to evade sanctions.
Maduro banned opposition candidates from holding public office, restricted news coverage and placed close allies in the National Electoral Council to ensure his victory despite evidence of “blatant” voter fraud, according to the report.
More than 80% of the country lives below the poverty line, and almost 8 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2017.
Both countries’ situations have fueled the immigration crisis in the U.S.
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“Conflict, violence, political instability, poor economic conditions and natural disasters will continue to displace growing numbers of people within their own national borders and internationally, straining countries’ capacity to absorb new arrivals and governments’ abilities to provide services and manage domestic public discontent,” the report says.
The U.S. and the Western Hemisphere in general, will “likely” continue to see high levels of migrant flows, according to the report.
The number of people displaced from their homes in 2022 was three times higher than the average of the previous 10 years, the Intelligence Community noted.
“Political repression and lack of economic opportunities will continue to drive Cuban, Nicaragua, and Venezuelan emigration; however, those regimes will continue to blame U.S. sanctions and policies for irregular emigration from their countries,” the report says.
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