Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 14: Penn State-Notre Dame and other key tossups

Editor’s note: The Athletic 134 is a weekly ranking of all FBS college football teams. 

It turns out the first 12-team College Football Playoff field may be mostly locked in before championship weekend. After weeks of twists, turns and hypotheticals, figuring out the 12 teams has become mostly pretty easy by the end. But seeding those teams remains completely up in the air, and it’s where the committee will be tested.

Ten, maybe 11, teams feel like locks: Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, the Big 12 champion (Iowa State or Arizona State), the ACC champion (SMU or Clemson) and the Mountain West champion (Boise State or UNLV). That’s 11. If you believe that 11-1 SMU should be a lock regardless of the ACC Championship Game outcome, the field may be set if Clemson wins that game. If you don’t, an SMU loss would leave one spot up for grabs between Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, along with the Mustangs.

But where will everyone be seeded? Will earning the No. 5 seed actually be an advantage or not? Who will have the best championship path from the quarterfinals on? Who will get the last slot to host a first-round game with the No. 8 seed?

I’ve disagreed with the committee quite a bit all season. I’ve been higher on SMU and Arizona State and lower on Miami than them. We don’t know how low Ohio State will drop after the Buckeyes’ shocking loss to Michigan, but I don’t believe it should be too far.

As it turns out, picking 12 teams may be easier this year than picking four teams. But the committee is about to set a lot of precedent: how it values wins and losses, how it reacts to conference championship losses, how it feels about the SEC. It created a firestorm by leaving Florida State out a year ago, but it was able to take the easy out, knowing that specific decision would never come up again. But there will be at least one more 12-team field after this year, and the future shape of the CFP field could depend on how the final rankings go.

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Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Ohio State’s woes and other Rivalry Weekend lessons

Here is this week’s Athletic 134.

1-10

Texas handled business against Texas A&M, moving up to No. 2 with a chance to avenge its lone loss to Georgia. A win Saturday in Atlanta and an Oregon loss could put the Longhorns at No. 1. A Texas loss and a Penn State win could put the Nittany Lions at No. 1.

But I have moved Notre Dame ahead of Penn State at No. 3 this week, which in turn would put Notre Dame as the No. 5 seed in my bracket. The reason the Fighting Irish jumped the Nittany Lions is that the two now have a common opponent in USC. Penn State went to overtime with the Trojans, while Notre Dame won by 14 (and led by 21 until the final seconds, too). Yes, Notre Dame has that Northern Illinois loss hanging around its neck, but don’t forget Penn State itself trailed a MAC team (Bowling Green) at halftime and hung on for a seven-point win. If there’s one team that can’t lean too much on a MAC performance argument against Notre Dame, it’s Penn State.

The Irish have been rolling. Ten of Notre Dame’s 11 wins have come by multiple scores, and the win against my No. 24 Louisville looks better now. Penn State does have the better Best Win (No. 17 Illinois), and if the Nittany Lions beat or stay close with Oregon, they’ll go back in front of the Irish.

Ohio State drops to No. 6, and it’s an important spot ahead. A bracket following these rankings would have No. 7 Tennessee visiting Columbus in the 8 vs. 9 game, rather than the Buckeyes coming to Knoxville. The latest AP poll put Tennessee ahead of Ohio State, but I don’t get that at all. The teams’ respective losses to Michigan and Arkansas essentially cancel each other out. Ohio State still has two top-10 wins (Penn State, Indiana) and a one-point loss at No. 1 Oregon. Tennessee has the win over Alabama, no other top-25 wins and a 14-point loss to Georgia. Take out the recency bias of Saturday, and Ohio State’s resume is clearly better than Tennessee’s. We’ll see whether the committee agrees.

The rest of the top 10 stays the same with SMU, Indiana and Boise State all winning comfortably.

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What we learned about the College Football Playoff: Who’s in? Who’s safe? Who’s on bubble?

11-25

Alabama grabs the last at-large spot in my bracket, and this is where the committee has its toughest call. The Tide have two losses to 6-6 teams, including by 21 points at Oklahoma. But they also have three clear top-25 wins against Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. Miami has zero top-25 wins if the committee doesn’t include Louisville, and its losses are to a 9-3 Syracuse team and a 7-5 Georgia Tech team that just took Georgia to eight overtimes. Does the committee prefer the better wins or the less-bad losses? Putting a three-loss team in the field feels weird, but somebody has to be team No. 12.

Although South Carolina arguably is playing as well as anyone in the country right now, I don’t think there should be a CFP path for the Gamecocks. You all know I lean on head-to-head results when comparing teams in the same general tier. South Carolina lost to Alabama and Ole Miss, the latter a 27-3 defeat at home. I just can’t put the Gamecocks higher than those two. The games have to matter. Maybe the committee will feel differently.

Illinois jumps ahead of Colorado as an adjustment from last week. Both teams are 9-3, and Illinois went 2-0 against their common opponents (Nebraska and Kansas), while Colorado went 0-2. Syracuse moves back into the top 25 with its win over Miami; UNLV also gives Syracuse another top-25 win. Clemson barely hangs on in the top 25 because the South Carolina game was close, but the Tigers have just one win over a team with a winning record (a late escape against 7-5 Pitt), and they lost definitively at home to Louisville. And still, Clemson has a shot at the CFP in the ACC championship. Meanwhile, the Cardinals move up to No. 24 after a 41-14 win at Kentucky.

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Stewart Mandel’s 12-team Playoff projections after Week 14

26-50

Texas A&M falls to No. 26 after its 17-7 home loss to Texas. Kansas State drops to No. 29 after a loss to Iowa State. Tulane’s loss to Memphis sees the Green Wave fall to No. 30.

Michigan jumps to No. 31 after the win against Ohio State, and Georgia Tech stays in generally the same place at No. 32 after taking Georgia to the brink. Baylor finished the season with six consecutive wins and remains at No. 34. Louisiana reached 10 wins and moves up to No. 40; the Ragin’ Cajuns will play for the Sun Belt championship this weekend.

Pitt has turned a 7-0 start into a 7-5 finish and drops to No. 45, though injuries certainly played a role in that. Vanderbilt, another former top-25 team here, falls to No. 42 after a 36-23 loss to Tennessee, giving the Commodores four losses in their last five against SEC competition. Back in the top 50 after wins are Navy (over East Carolina), Boston College (over North Carolina) and Rutgers (over Michigan State).

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What does the return of Texas-Texas A&M mean? Here’s what I saw before, during and after

51-75

Nebraska drops out of the top 50 to No. 51 after yet another late loss to Iowa. Marshall came back late to beat James Madison, win the Sun Belt East and rise up to No. 52. West Virginia lost 52-15 to Texas Tech, then fired head coach Neal Brown and now falls to No. 54. Washington State, once 8-1 overall and ranked in the top 25, ended the regular season with three consecutive surprising losses to New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming, all of whom finished with losing records. The Cougars drop to No. 55.

No. 57 Virginia Tech and No. 58 NC State move up after rivalry wins earned them bowl eligibility. No. 65 UConn beat UMass to move to 8-4, its most wins in a season since 2010. Meanwhile, No. 60 Auburn, No. 62 Virginia, No. 63 Wisconsin, No. 64 Cincinnati and No. 67 Michigan State all drop after losses that left them to miss out on bowl games.

Western Kentucky beat Jacksonville State, so the Hilltoppers jump to No. 68, and the two teams will run it back Friday in the Conference USA Championship Game. Georgia Southern beat rival Appalachian State, and the Eagles move up to No. 71.

76-100

No. 79 Miami (Ohio) and No. 80 Ohio will play a rematch for the MAC championship on Saturday (Miami beat Ohio 30-20 in mid-October). San Jose State beat Stanford and jumped to No. 81 to cap a strong first season under Ken Niumatalolo. North Texas barely hung on but beat Temple and finally reached bowl eligibility, moving up to No. 93. Hawaii’s win against New Mexico sees the Rainbow Warriors climb to No. 98.

101-134

This is the part of the rankings in which the majority of the remaining teams are in their final landing spot, with no hope of a bowl game. Oklahoma State’s disastrous 3-9 season ended with a 52-0 loss to Colorado and an 0-9 record in Big 12 play, dropping to No. 103. The Cowboys only felt like the worst Power 4 team down the stretch — No. 104 Mississippi State, No. 105 Florida State and No. 112 Purdue were worse. Last year, there was just one Power 4 team that finished 2-10 or worse (Vandy). This year, we got three.

ULM started 5-0 but finished 5-7, ending at No. 107. Louisiana Tech won two of its last three games to finish 5-7, bump up to No. 109, and head coach Sonny Cumbie will be back next season. Air Force won its last four games to get to 5-7 and No. 111. San Diego State, meanwhile, lost its final six games to drop to 3-9 and No. 126. Kennesaw State finished 2-10 and No. 132 in its first FBS season.

Kent State became the first 0-12 team in the FBS since 2019 with its loss to Buffalo. The Golden Flashes only had two games finish within three scores — against FCS St. Francis (Pa.) and Ball State, which fired its coach.

The Athletic 134 series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo: Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)