December is almost upon us. The final month on the calendar is the most transactional time of the baseball year. In nine days, the industry will gather in Dallas for the Winter Meetings. The biggest questions of the offseason — Where will Juan Soto go? Which pitcher will get paid the most? Seriously, who is signing Soto? — will start getting answered.
Some of the answers have already emerged. Scott Boras struck early with a pair of pitching clients: Blake Snell has agreed to a five-year, $182 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, while Yusei Kikuchi took a three-year, $63 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels. So the pitching market has taken shape.
There is a plethora of talent besides Soto, Snell and Kikuchi on the market this winter, an interesting collection of elite pitchers and accomplished hitters. With that in mind, here is one free-agent Black Friday fit for each team, an annual ritual that occasionally gets things right. As always, these projections stem from a combination of reporting, wish-casting, and, on the rarest of occasions, some trolling. (There’s less trolling this year, we think.)
A note to the readers: This is an imperfect exercise. We can’t assign every player to the Los Angeles Dodgers, even if seemingly every free agent might want to play there and every free agent might fit there. (Don’t even try to ask about Roki Sasaki, by the way.) We can’t let Steve Cohen outfit all the starting pitchers in orange and blue. We have to predict the Miami Marlins will sign a big-league free agent. There will be some whiffs in here. But hopefully we can demonstrate how the rest of this winter could unfold.
Chicago White Sox (41-121)
Kyle Hart, LHP
The most pressing bit of business for general manager Chris Getz is getting the best possible trade return for pitcher Garrett Crochet. Adding big-league free agents shouldn’t be the priority for a team coming off the worst season in baseball history. But they could use some more pitching. Erick Fedde utilized the White Sox as a springboard as he returned from the KBO after being named the South Korean league’s 2023 MVP. Perhaps Hart, a former Red Sox farmhand who posted a 2.69 ERA in 157 innings for the league’s NC Dinos last year, could do the same.
We promise the rest of this exercise will be more interesting.
Colorado Rockies (61-101)
Mark Canha, IF/OF
OK, sorry, give us some time. As a franchise, the Rockies appear to be guided mostly by inertia. The team is not expected to be aggressive about improving a roster that has finished in last place in three consecutive seasons. Canha can handle a variety of different positions while adding a veteran presence to the youthful clubhouse.
Miami Marlins (62-100)
Harrison Bader, CF
The Marlins are more likely to upgrade their lineup through trades than free agency, so this one probably won’t happen. This is a tough slog. OK. Buckle down. It will get better.
Los Angeles Angels (63-99)
Cavan Biggio, IF/OF
The Angels have actually accomplished a good bit of offseason heavy lifting already. Earlier this week, GM Perry Minasian signed Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal, adding to an early-winter haul that includes outfielder Jorge Soler, catcher Travis d’Arnaud, starter Kyle Hendricks and infielder Kevin Newman. So the team may be done throwing big money around. Biggio would be an upgrade on the bench over Scott Kingery.
Las Vegas Athletics of Sacramento (69-93)
Yoán Moncada, 3B
Oakland made some strides last season and the position-player core looks decent. The team — officially now just known as the Athletics — still has a vacancy at third base. It might be worthwhile to see if Moncada, a former top-five prospect who never found consistency with the White Sox, can stay healthy and motivated enough to rebound. He will certainly cost less than the $25 million team option declined by Chicago earlier this month.
Washington Nationals (71-91)
Anthony Santander, OF
A team like the Nationals, which could use some certainty at the center of its lineup, might be willing to give out a lengthier deal to Santander as he enters his age-30 season. The Nationals hit fewer homers than any team besides the White Sox in 2024. Santander could change that. He has averaged 35 homers during the past three seasons and swatted a career-high 44 in 2024.
Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)
Corbin Burnes could be heading north. (Greg Fiume / Getty Images)
Corbin Burnes, RHP
If the Blue Jays are serious about Soto, they should be serious about Burnes, another star represented by Scott Boras. Burnes will likely command the longest deal of all the top starters, but he also presents the longest track record of sustained success. Burnes could anchor Toronto’s rotation in 2025 and beyond. Chris Bassitt can enter free agency after this season. Kevin Gausman can do the same after 2026. And José Berríos could opt out of his contract after 2026, too.
Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)
Tyler O’Neill, OF
O’Neill clubbed the baseball around in his lone season in Boston. He slugged .511 and hit 31 homers. He won’t turn 30 until next June. He won two Gold Gloves with St. Louis. So why isn’t he expected to secure a nine-figure deal? Injuries. He’s been dogged by them the last few years. He played 113 games for Boston as he dealt with a variety of minor issues. A team like Pittsburgh, which isn’t too far away from contending in the National League Central, should be willing to risk a three-year deal on a player with O’Neill’s upside.
Cincinnati Reds (77-85)
Teoscar Hernández, OF
Speaking of teams close to contending in the Central …
Look, there’s a good chance Hernández just returns to the Dodgers, but let’s dream a Queen City dream for a moment. The Reds lured Terry Francona out of retirement by selling the prospect of winning with a young core. The lineup could use a cleanup hitter. Owner Bob Castellini has supported payrolls beyond $100 million in the past, and he can certainly afford to do so again in 2025.
Yeah, we’re forcing the issue. Hernández will probably just rejoin the Dodgers. Or head to New York to join the Mets. Or to Atlanta. Or to Seattle. But it’s worth considering!
Texas Rangers (78-84)
Tanner Scott, LHP
Texas believes the team can contend in 2025. Most of the lineup from the 2023 championship squad is still around. Jacob deGrom will enter the season at full strength. But while owner Ray Davis is not expected to authorize the huge expenditures the team required to assemble most of the roster, maybe there is enough room to add someone like Scott. He was the most valuable reliever in baseball these past two seasons, according to FanGraphs. When he throws strikes, he looks indomitable. He owned Shohei Ohtani during the postseason. He can close or he can put out fires. For a team looking to return to October, he makes a lot of sense.
Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)
Kyle Higashioka, C
The long-term future of the Rays looks murky. And the short-term outlook, for the first time in a while, doesn’t look all that bright. Tampa Bay finished below .500 last season for the first time since 2017. Last summer’s teardown netted an influx of talent, but little of it is close to reaching the majors. In the interim, as the ownership group sorts out the living situation, the big-league club needs a catcher. Higashioka, a former Yankees backup, has plenty of experience in the American League East. He’s a solid defender who smacked 17 homers with San Diego in 2024.
San Francisco Giants (80-82)
Willy Adames, SS
Buster Posey, the future Hall of Fame catcher turned minority owner turned new chief baseball executive, opened the offseason by surrounding himself with trusted confidants. We shall see how it goes. Posey has been open about the team’s desire to add a new shortstop. Adames is the best player at the position on the market — and perhaps the best position player on the market besides Juan Soto. He offers power and stability, and should be able to land a nine-figure deal.
Boston Red Sox (81-81)
Max Fried, LHP
The Red Sox are shopping at the top of the starting pitching market this winter, and if you fiddle the knobs, you can make a case for Fried over Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. Over the past three seasons, Fried has posted a lower ERA (2.80) than Burnes and Snell. He has thrown more innings than Snell and with a better strikeout-to-walk ratio. His approach is based on generating soft contact rather than swings and misses. You get the picture. All three are pretty good, and all three have some flaws. Fried comes with health concerns. He missed a good chunk of time in 2023 and a few starts in 2024 as he dealt with a forearm issue. (The forearm, any doctor will tell you, is connected to the elbow.) But when he takes the mound, Fried tends to be excellent.
Minnesota Twins (82-80)
Randal Grichuk, OF
Any time an executive describes an upcoming offseason approach as “creative,” the translation is easy: It’s not going to involve spending a lot of money. The Twins are banking on better health from their top trio of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis to carry them back into the postseason. They could still make some tweaks on the margins, like adding Grichuk, a right-handed hitter to complement left-handed-hitting corner outfielders Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Grichuk mashed lefties for Arizona last year, with a .914 OPS in 184 plate appearances.
Chicago Cubs (83-79)
Jack Flaherty, RHP
Flaherty made the most of his pillow-contract season in 2024. He logged more innings than he had since 2019, when he looked like a budding ace in St. Louis. He thrived in Detroit and became the No. 1 starter for the eventual World Series champions in Los Angeles. Flaherty would like to stay with the Dodgers, but they may have their sights set a bit higher. The Cubs could use some stability in the rotation.
St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
Nick Pivetta, RHP
A new era is dawning in St. Louis, where John Mozeliak is a year away from handing over the keys of the franchise to former Rays and Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom. Bloom acquired Pivetta with Boston back in 2020. Pivetta puts up tantalizing peripheral numbers and misses a lot of bats. If he could ever cut down on his home run rate, he might look like a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. Perhaps he could realize that fate in St. Louis.
Seattle Mariners (85-77)
Pete Alonso may bring his polar bear moniker to the Pacific Northwest. (Al Bello / Getty Images)
Pete Alonso, 1B
Perhaps more than any other player, Alonso is waiting to see where Juan Soto lands. The Mets harbor interest in bringing back Alonso, a homegrown star. The team has a backup plan, though, in the form of infielder Mark Vientos. And the Mariners are so desperate for offense, especially from the infield corners, that the front office could ignore Alonso’s lack of on-base skills and pay a premium for his power.
Detroit Tigers (86-76)
Sean Manaea, LHP
The Tigers arrived in October ahead of schedule this year. A reunion between manager A.J. Hinch and third baseman Alex Bregman makes a lot of sense, but the price will be steep and Detroit would like to create runway at the position for former first-round pick Jace Jung. The club’s needs in the rotation are the most acute. The team made it to the postseason last year utilizing Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal and a boatload of bullpen games. Detroit could make a commitment to Manaea, who thrived after shifting his arm angle to mimic the other Cy Young award winner in 2024, Chris Sale.
Kansas City Royals (86-76)
Clay Holmes, RHP
The addition of Jonathan India fulfilled the team’s desire for a leadoff hitter and likely foreclosed on a serious pursuit of a more expensive second baseman who can bat leadoff: Gleyber Torres. Going after Holmes, a quality reliever who buckled beneath the weight of closing for the Yankees, could be a worthwhile investment. Holmes still generated whiffs and missed barrels in 2024 even while blowing saves. His arsenal would deepen the Royals bullpen and offer more high-leverage options for manager Matt Quatraro.
Houston Astros (88-73)
Alex Bregman might still be in a Houston uniform next season. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
Alex Bregman, 3B
Jim Crane has let homegrown stars walk before. Maybe Bregman will meet the same fate as Carlos Correa and George Springer. Or maybe Crane will recognize the lack of external or internal options to replace Bregman at third base and authorize general manager Dana Brown to do what it takes to keep the former No. 2 overall pick. Jose Altuve has already made his case to the brass. If the Astros want to keep their run going, they’ll likely need to keep Bregman around.
Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
With Christian Walker entering free agency, the Diamondbacks need a first baseman. With his contract in St. Louis expiring, Paul Goldschmidt needs a home. Sometimes the stories write themselves. Goldschmidt was one of the best Diamondbacks in franchise history. This could be a charming way for Goldschmidt, 37, to put a bow on his resume for the Hall of Fame. Or it could end badly, as Goldschmidt saw his production crater in 2024, only two years removed from winning the National League MVP. Such are the perils of being romantic about baseball.
New York Mets (89-73)
Juan Soto, OF
Scott Boras referred to Soto as “the Mona Lisa of the museum.” Steve Cohen is baseball’s most prolific art collector. We looked like knuckleheads last year when our galaxy-brained take on Shohei Ohtani led us to forecasting him joining the Texas Rangers. No need to complicate things. Cohen has the deepest pockets. He will dip into them to sign Soto to the richest (present-day value, for sure) contract in baseball history.
Atlanta Braves (89-73)
Walker Buehler, RHP
Atlanta will need to replace Max Fried and Charlie Morton in the starting rotation. It won’t take a long-term deal to land Buehler, who starred in October for the Dodgers after a difficult regular season as he returned from his second Tommy John surgery. Buehler lives for the postseason, and the Braves expect to be there.
Baltimore Orioles (91-71)
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
The winter offers the first test for owner David Rubenstein’s willingness to spend. Cot’s Contracts projected the club’s current payroll commitments for 2025 at $90 million. That number will rise in the coming years as young hitters reach arbitration. There is plenty of room for Rubenstein to make a splash with a starter. Burnes and Fried make sense — but will the precedent set by Snell’s deal price the Orioles out? We will believe they are spending when we see it. Until then, Eovaldi would work as a battle-tested, well-regarded veteran.
Cleveland Guardians (92-69)
Matthew Boyd, LHP
Boyd stabilized the Cleveland rotation during the final two months of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2023. His output might not have been substantial enough to convince the industry that his days of injury are a thing of the past. Another season in Cleveland couldn’t hurt.
San Diego Padres (93-69)
Jurickson Profar, OF
Profar delivered the best season of his career after signing a $1 million deal with the Padres. The marriage between player and team appeared ideal. Profar lengthened the dynamic San Diego lineup. He played the outfield with flair. He probably won’t put up another season with a .380 on-base percentage, but the Padres would do well to bring him back.
Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
Michael Soroka, RHP
Soroka put together an excellent rookie campaign with Atlanta in 2019 before injuries derailed his career. He flopped as a starter for the White Sox last season. But after entering the bullpen in the middle of May, he became an effective, multi-inning weapon. Sounds perfect for the Brewers, one of the sport’s best utilizers of “out getters” like Soroka.
New York Yankees (94-68)
Christian Walker, 1B
Let’s make this clear: The priority for the Yankees is Juan Soto. The priority is Juan Soto. The priority is Juan Soto. But if you didn’t CTRL-F “Yankees” on your browser, you’ll see that Steve Cohen has scotched that possibility within this exercise. So the Yankees will have to regroup. If Soto signs elsewhere, Hal Steinbrenner will reallocate those resources to improve the lineup and the rotation. The smoothest fit would involve signing Walker, a quietly consistent performer who would be a significant upgrade over Anthony Rizzo both with his bat and with his glove.
Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)
Jeff Hoffman, RHP
The Phillies are hanging on the periphery of the Soto talks and pondering how trading a position player might reshape and revitalize the roster. The bullpen will require some reinforcements, too. Dave Dombrowski found a gem when he inked Hoffman to a minor-league deal heading into 2023. Hoffman blossomed into a high-leverage arm who made the All-Star team in 2024. He will cost much more this time. John Middleton can afford it.
Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
Roki Sasaki, RHP
A lot can happen between now and Jan. 15, when the Chiba Lotte Marines can post Sasaki and permit him to sign with a big-league club. And the Dodgers are poised to do a lot, if they so choose, even after adding Snell. The team can still afford Soto. There are potential reunions with Walker Buehler, Teoscar Hernández, Kiké Hernández, Blake Treinen or even Joc Pederson. Andrew Friedman has reached the state of optionality he always craves, in which no moves are off the board and no matter what happens this winter the Dodgers will enter 2025 as the World Series favorites.
So the Dodgers will be busy between now and January. But when Sasaki hits the market, it still makes the most sense for him to choose Los Angeles, join a rotation that includes Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and deepen the team’s foothold in the Japanese market.
(Illustration: Meech Robinson, The Athletic; Photos: Sarah Stier, Greg Fiume, Luke Hales, John Fisher, Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
