Utah will be one of the NHL’s highest-scoring teams? The Stars Stanley Cup winners? Dylan Larkin — and many others — 40-goal scorers?
Heading into the 2024-25 NHL season, The Athletic asked its hockey staff for bold predictions, and two months later, some are holding up well while others look to have been a bit too bold.
Here’s a progress report on each prediction, from the writers ready to take a victory lap to the many who need a mulligan.
Preseason bold prediction: Trevor Zegras will not be traded this season
Outlook: Still in play
It feels like there have been two factions at work here: those who feel like a Zegras trade is inevitable and those (i.e., Zegras/Ducks fans) who are beyond tired of seeing his name in trade-related/hypothesized/predicted stories. Mind you, it’s hard to peg what his value is or could be. He had been healthy until he got injured this week and his return date is uncertain. Those who’ve watched him closely can see he is playing a more responsible 200-foot game under Greg Cronin. But he’s also on a 34-point pace. Zegras might be a distressed asset, but GM Pat Verbeek isn’t going to move a highly skilled 23-year-old forward for another team’s throwaways. — Eric Stephens
Jeremy Swayman struggled early for the Bruins, but is better as of late. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Jeremy Swayman will struggle early
Outlook: Lock it in
This one was easy. It wasn’t just that Swayman missed all of training camp before signing his contract. He had to adjust to the physical and mental strain of being the go-to goalie following the trade of Linus Ullmark. On top of that, most of his teammates struggled out of the gate. It’s no wonder Swayman wasn’t himself. — Fluto Shinzawa
Preseason bold prediction: Owen Power will double his previous high-goal total
Outlook: Still in play
Power is already almost halfway to a career high in points 26 games into the season and has three goals. He needs nine more in the final 66 games to get to my preseason bold prediction. Given that he plays 22 minutes a night and has a role on the power play, 12 goals is still a number that’s in play, but it’s not quite a lock. — Matthew Fairburn
Preseason bold prediction: Jonathan Huberdeau will crack the 80-point plateau
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
While Huberdeau’s goal totals look more promising compared to last year (he had one point in all of December 2023), we kind of figured his assists would be up. However, he isn’t trending toward an 80-point season, per Hockey Reference. But if he goes on some kind of scoring run between now and the end of the season, maybe that changes. — Julian McKenzie
Preseason bold prediction: Seth Jarvis will get a shot at center
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
The Hurricanes still haven’t figured out who will be their second-line center, but so far it hasn’t been Jarvis. Coach Rod Brind’Amour has bounced between using Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Jack Drury in a more featured role, while Jarvis has remained on the wing. Jarvis has also not been used much on faceoffs — a key for any Brind’Amour center — since returning from an upper-body injury. — Cory Lavalette
Preseason bold prediction: The Blackhawks will finish 25 points better than last season
Outlook: It’s a long shot
This season hasn’t gone as expected for the Blackhawks, which was apparent with Luke Richardson’s firing on Thursday. They’re more competitive than a season ago — they’ve led, been tied or within a goal in the third period in 25 of 26 games — but their record is even worse. Does a new coach change that? We’ll see. But they have to win a lot to meet the bold prediction. — Scott Powers
Preseason bold prediction: Cale Makar will have 100 points
Outlook: Still in play
This prediction is looking solid through the first two months of the season. Makar leads all defensemen with 34 points, which ranks 13th amongst all players. He’s on an 82-game pace of 103 points, so he’s right on track. As expected, Makar is getting a lot of his production done on the power play, where he’s tied for fourth in the NHL with 14 points. — Jesse Granger
Yegor Chinakhov has had an impressive start to the season with the Blue Jackets. (Jason Mowry / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Yegor Chinakhov will bloom as a goal scorer
Outlook: Still in play
Chinakhov threatened to make this prediction look like pure genius with three goals and seven points in the Blue Jackets’ first five games. He’s since cooled off and is currently out of the lineup day to day with an upper-body injury. But once he returns, the 23-year-old Russian will get a top-six role on a club that’s been surprisingly productive. He has seven goals in 21 games, meaning our prediction of 25-plus is still in play. Our prediction of increased ice time? He’s gone from 15:10 last season to 17:01 under coach Dean Evason. — Aaron Portzline
Preseason bold prediction: The Stars will win the Stanley Cup
Outlook: Still in play
Top 10 in goals per game, top five in goals-against per game, top five in penalty kill and a top-10 goalie in Jake Oettinger. The Stars are right where we expected them to be, among the league’s best teams, and they’re doing it with an underperforming power play and relatively slow starts from Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, all of which likely will positively regress to the mean. Even with Tyler Seguin’s potential season-ending surgery (something which likely will make the Stars more aggressive in the trade market), Dallas remains a leading contender for the Stanley Cup. — Mark Lazerus
Preseason bold prediction: Dylan Larkin will score 40 goals
Outlook: Still in play
This season hasn’t gone how the Red Wings would have hoped, but Larkin is indeed close to being on pace to threaten 40 goals. There’s a lot of season left, of course, but he’s been a force, particularly on the power play. Detroit could really use some more offense from down the lineup, but their top players (Larkin, Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat) have been scoring to begin the year. — Max Bultman
Preseason bold prediction: Stuart Skinner will finish top five in Vezina voting
Outlook: Not happening
Skinner went from perhaps the presumptive starter for Team Canada at the 4 Nations tourney entering the offseason to not making the team because of his subpar start. Skinner sports an .889 save percentage in 17 appearances. He’s also surrendered 5.26 more goals than expected in all situations, per Natural Stat Trick. His last start before rosters were due was one of his best, but it was too little too late. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
GO DEEPER
Stuart Skinner’s last audition for a Team Canada job is as good as it gets
Preseason bold prediction: Adam Boqvist will break out
Outlook: It’s a long shot
It’s not that Boqvist has been horrendous — an expected goal rate of around 50 percent for a cheap, third-pair defenseman could be worse — but he hasn’t come close to a breakout, either, and actually played his way out of the lineup for most of November. He’s back, though, and scored in consecutive games through Thursday. More than anything, that prediction was based on Boqvist getting a whole bunch of power-play time, and that’s once again Aaron Ekblad’s job to lose. Probably not happening. — Sean Gentille
Preseason bold prediction: Quinton Byfield will become the Kings’ best player
Outlook: Not happening
Can I say I was kidding? No? Hey, I bought into the idea of Byfield building on his breakout season. Seeing him with just three goals and 11 points nearly a third of the way into the season is a bit baffling. He’s back at his natural position but the transition from playing on wing with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe to centering his own line hasn’t been seamless. It’s not that he’s hurting their lineup but the Kings becoming a real threat in the Western Conference will look more realistic if he starts to look more like a leading player on their roster like Kopitar and Kempe are. — Eric Stephens
Preseason bold prediction: Matt Boldy will score 40 goals and 40 assists
Outlook: Still in play
This felt like a lock in mid-November when he had 10 goals in his first 16 games, but Boldy has gone six games without a goal and has one in his past nine. Still, he was on pace for 36 goals and 43 assists for a 79-point total through Thursday, which would establish career highs. This is a guy who has a tendency to get white hot, especially because he is a high-volume shooter (93 in 25 games this season, 3.7 per game). — Michael Russo
Preseason bold prediction: Juraj Slafkovský will hit 70 points
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
Slafkovský has 14 points in 23 games and has 56 games left to get 56 points. Doesn’t seem ideal. But last season at this point, Slafkovský had 7 points in 25 games and finished with 43 points in his final 57 games. Putting up a point per game from here on out is a high bar, but Slafkovský has not yet reached the level we saw from him last season. There is a lot of room for him to grow. I’m not willing to write off this prediction just yet, though it’s not looking great so far. — Arpon Basu
Preseason bold prediction: Juuse Saros will win the Vezina Trophy
Outlook: Not happening
Saros is the absolute least of the Preds’ concerns. He’s having a fine season — you might even call it an extraordinary season, given the utter lack of help he’s getting. But he isn’t standing on his head enough to deliver wins for the league’s worst offensive team. Or is this just the worst team, period? Team failure to this extent repels individual awards. — Joe Rexrode
Preseason bold prediction: The Devils will finish with the East’s best record
Outlook: Still in play
The Devils’ offseason overhaul has led to a successful start to 2024-25. Their position in the East standings is a bit inflated by games they have in hand, but they were still fourth in points percentage through Thursday. One hot streak and they could be right in the mix with the leaders. — Peter Baugh
Preseason bold prediction: Noah Dobson will score 70 points again — and get a big extension
Outlook: It’s a long shot
The 70-point thing is a pipe dream with Dobson sitting on 12 points through 27 games. And the eight-year $8-million-or-so extension might be a pipe dream too. Dobson is still just 24, but he’s hit a plateau this season for the middling Islanders. Whoops. — Arthur Staple
Preseason bold prediction: Igor Shesterkin will win the Vezina Trophy
Outlook: Still in play
The Rangers are in a bit of a rut, but Shesterkin has had a good year. His 8-9-1 record isn’t overly impressive, but he has taken most of the Rangers games against playoff teams and had a .908 save percentage through Thursday with better underlying numbers. He’s not among the Vezina front-runners at this point, but him winning the award isn’t impossible. He also now doesn’t have any contract talk hanging over him. He agreed to a record-setting eight-year extension Friday. — Peter Baugh
Preseason bold prediction: Travis Green will win the Jack Adams Award
Outlook: It’s a long shot
If the Senators reverse their fortunes after a less-than-ideal start, Green’s case for the Jack Adams could be made. When Ottawa plays at its best, it looks like a playoff team. The issue is consistency. That’s on Green to help instill in his own group. But right now, we don’t think Green will end up on many ballots for coach of the year honors. — Julian McKenzie
GO DEEPER
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Preseason bold prediction: The Flyers will have a top-15 power play
Outlook: It’s a long shot
It looked so promising early. The Flyers converted on eight of their first 31 power-play chances through eight games, good for eighth in the NHL. Since then it’s resumed its place at the bottom of the league. Since Oct. 27, only the Bruins have a worse power play than the Flyers’ 10.4 percent success rate. At some point, perhaps soon, the Flyers may be forced to make a decision on assistant coach Rocky Thompson, who just can’t seem to get this part of the Flyers’ game going. — Kevin Kurz
Marcus Pettersson could be a big target for teams at the trade deadline. (Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Marcus Pettersson will become a trade-deadline commodity
Outlook: Lock it in
Pettersson was No. 2 on our big board and would-be UFAs that high on a trade list don’t usually end up staying with their teams. The Penguins won four consecutive games before Friday, their best run of the season. They’re within striking distance of a playoff spot — and it’s possible that means they hold on to Pettersson. But a case can be made for striking while the iron is hot. There are no indications a long-term extension is on the table here in Pittsburgh. The Penguins are in the mushy middle but closer to the bottom than the top. Keeping a player like Pettersson doesn’t make much sense. — Rob Rossi
GO DEEPER
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Preseason bold prediction: William Eklund will lead the team in scoring
Outlook: So far, not so good. But there’s time …
With his 18 assists and 23 points, Eklund is second in those categories to Mikael Granlund so the possibility does exist of the 22-year-old overtaking the veteran. The chances of that will greatly increase if the Sharks were to move Granlund before the trade deadline. Eklund can build up his goal total as he has only five in 28 games, and he may have to hold off a hard-charging Macklin Celebrini who’s nearly at a point per game since returning from injury. But the left wing in his third full season has become the front-line core player the Sharks imagined when taking him at No. 7 in the 2021 draft. — Eric Stephens
Matty Beniers is struggling to produce in his third full season with the Kraken. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Preseason bold prediction: Matty Beniers will score 30 goals
Outlook: Not happening
I’m ready to capitulate early on this prediction. After what appeared to be a snake bit, sophomore slump campaign for the 2023 Calder winner, the gifted Kraken center has somehow remained in shooing-percentage hell this season. Through 27 games before Friday, Beniers had scored just four times on 51 shots and is carrying a 7.8 percent shooting clip that’s less than half of the conversion rate he managed in his electric rookie season. Beniers would have to score at a 44-goals per 82-game pace over the balance to hit 30, which is a massive stretch for a player that has scored just 19 goals in his most recent 104 games played through Thursday. — Thomas Drance
Preseason bold prediction: Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway’s success will lead to more offer sheets
Outlook: Lock it in
I’m more confident about this now than I was at the start of the season. Broberg missed 12 games with an injury, but when in the lineup, he’s been arguably the Blues’ best defenseman. Likewise, Holloway has perhaps been their most versatile productive forward. There may not be an identical situation where two talented players are available on a team — in this case the Oilers — that can’t afford to match an offer sheet. But with the way Broberg and Holloway are playing, the vultures will be out. — Jeremy Rutherford
GO DEEPER
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Preseason bold prediction: Andrei Vasilevskiy will be a Vezina Trophy finalist
Outlook: It’s a long shot
Vasilevskiy may have more two-way support this season, but he isn’t in the Vezina Trophy race right now. That’s a conversation led by the likes of Connor Hellebuyck, Lukas Dostal and Filip Gustavsson. Vasilevskiy is having a fine season so far — he has saved 3.97 goals above expected through 20 games while earning a .909 save percentage — but those numbers aren’t sparkling like some of the league’s best or even his peak years. The season isn’t over yet and he tends to heat up as the pressure rises, but he has a lot of ground to make up. — Shayna Goldman
Preseason bold prediction: Mitch Marner will score 40 goals
Outlook: Still in play
Marner had one goal in October. Then, a heater shooting the puck in November. He had eight goals in 12 games. Marner is still off the 40-goal pace though. He appears headed more for his third 30-goal season than his first 40-goal campaign. If head coach Craig Berube gets his way though and Marner starts shooting the puck more aggressively, there’s still a chance Marner comes close to or even hits 40 goals. During the back half of the 2021-22 season, Marner shot the puck more aggressively than ever and punched in 29 goals during a 46-game stretch. That’s what he’ll need the rest of the way to hit 40. — Jonas Siegel
Utah Hockey Club
Preseason bold prediction: Utah will finish as one of the NHL’s highest-scoring teams
Outlook: Not happening
Did anyone here whiff as much as this prediction? Other than an early flurry to start the season, Utah has struggled mightily to score this season, sitting 23rd in goals per game and 24th on the power play through Thursday. A lot of the Hockey Clubbers’ young talent has failed to break through, with Logan Cooley on pace for fewer than 20 goals and a lot of their 20-goal producers from last season coming up well short of those projections in the early going. Connor Ingram’s struggles in goal and injuries on defense have hurt their record, but regressing offensively to this extent is the bigger surprise given the cast up front. — James Mirtle
Preseason bold prediction: Elias Pettersson will bounce back and lead the team in scoring
Outlook: Still in play
It certainly hasn’t been an out-of-the-gate, no-doubt-about-it, he’s-back-like-John-Wick level bounce back for Pettersson this season, but the star Canucks center has found his form of late. He’s back to controlling play and still has a chance to lead all Vancouver players in scoring. Through Thursday, he ranked first in points and points per game among Canucks forwards, but what I didn’t expect was Quinn Hughes to hit even another level of preposterous form this season. Through Thursday, Hughes was holding a six-point lead over Pettersson in the point production department this season, so Pettersson still has some catching up to do. — Thomas Drance
Preseason bold prediction: Pavel Dorofeyev will finish second on the team in goals
Outlook: Still in play
The hope with this prediction was that Dorofeyev would take advantage of a bigger opportunity than he’s had to this point in his career, and that’s exactly what has happened through two months. Through Thursday, Dorofeyev was second on the Golden Knights with 12 goals, only one behind team leader Ivan Barbashev. He has contributed both at even strength and on the top power-play unit, and has been an integral part of Vegas’ seventh-ranked offense. — Jesse Granger
Preseason bold prediction: The Pierre-Luc Dubois deal will pay off
Outlook: Still in play
There’s plenty of road left before I can do a victory lap, but I feel good about predicting good things for Dubois. Is he playing to a 70-point pace, as I said he would? Not quite. Has he been a major catalyst for the Caps’ early-season success? Absolutely. He’s crushing most of his minutes as the 2C, which allowed Washington to set up favorable matchups for Alex Ovechkin’s line, and has helped Connor McMichael get off to a scorching start. So far, so good. — Sean Gentille
Preseason bold prediction: Nikolaj Ehlers will play out the season and then walk as a UFA
Outlook: Still in play
Ehlers is a point-per-game player now, mostly because he’s been every bit as good on the top power play as advertised: helpful on entries, good in the high slot, creative with options in the zone. He’s also hurt, nursing a lower-body injury suffered against Vegas on Nov. 29. It’s difficult to say what any of this means for his future, though. I believe the “self-rental” option is still on the table for Winnipeg. If recent call-up Brad Lambert bursts offensively, Ehlers could become a trade chip. (For the right return, it might not take that Lambert burst.) An extension does not appear to be a front-burner, midseason option, but must also be considered a possibility. — Murat Ates
(Top photo of Red Wings center Dylan Larkin celebrating after scoring a goal: Brian Bradshaw Sevald / Imagn Images)
