Sunday’s Week 13 games followed some of the trends we saw on Thursday and Friday — favored teams making narrow escapes.
BACK ON TOP!
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/ULrtwvSvoZ
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 1, 2024
What to make of those oh-so-close victories, the Eagles’ continued ascension and another low-scoring win for the Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers? The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on those storylines and more.
With the Philadelphia defense, despite some injuries, holding the Ravens in check in Baltimore for an eighth straight win, how much of a gap is there between the Eagles and Lions in the NFC?
Nguyen: There isn’t a gap. The Eagles got off to a slow start as they were learning Vic Fangio’s and Kellen Moore’s systems, but since their bye week they’ve been dominant, beating quality opponents such as the Bengals, Commanders and Ravens. The Lions have been equally impressive.
Maybe there’s a difference in perception because the vibes and expectations for the Lions were so high since last year while the Eagles were so disappointing at the end of last season. But these are two absolutely loaded rosters that are playing extremely well. Both teams are overwhelming at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. You wouldn’t want to live with either quarterback in the dropback game, but Jalen Hurts gets helped out by the option game and Jared Goff is as good as any quarterback throwing play-action. A playoff game between these two would be a physical battle and fun to watch for fans of great line play.
Jones: I don’t think there’s much of a gap, if any. Yes, the Lions are impressive and well-rounded. Their offense is electrifying and their defense is resilient. But the Eagles, who continue to ascend, look just as dominant in their own way. They, too, can attack in a variety of ways offensively, and have a defense that offers great support for their offense. Philadelphia boasts a more physical brand of football, and a number of its core players have the experience of having reached the Super Bowl to draw upon. So, in my eyes, the Eagles are equipped to compete with any elite team in the league. The Lions and Eagles are seemingly on a collision course for the NFC Championship game, and it likely would be a highly entertaining showdown.
Pompei: The Lions obviously have an edge in the competition for home-field advantage, but there is a lot of football to be played. As well as the Lions have performed, it’s fair to wonder if they can maintain their excellence with the number of significant injuries they have incurred on defense. The Eagles, conversely, seem to be building toward a peak. This is a team that is doing many things well. But both have been outstanding and deserve to be on top of the NFC. A conference championship game between the Lions and Eagles would be a fitting way to determine the Super Bowl participant. Not much separates the two.
If you were John Harbaugh, what would you do about the suddenly — and stunningly — slumping Justin Tucker?
Pompei: Signing another kicker to compete with Tucker might be a good move. If Tucker kicks better in practice, he can earn the opportunity to continue kicking in games. If he is outperformed, the Ravens can give him a chance to get his mechanics and confidence back. Cutting him probably isn’t prudent, given that he could/should regain his form at some point and has a résumé as one of the most accurate kickers of all-time. But something needs to be done in the short term because missed kicks will prevent the Ravens from getting to where they are capable of going.
Jones: It’s very difficult to watch a legendary player like Tucker struggle like this. He’s now had multiple crucial misses on either field goals or extra point attempts in four of the Ravens’ five losses. Harbaugh and the Ravens love Tucker, though, so they want to handle this situation with great care. But loyalty could wind up costing them, either down the stretch of this regular season or in the playoffs. They really have no other choice than to explore other options at kicker. I’m not saying cut Tucker, but it’s just smart to bring someone else in to at least compete with him and then evaluate the situation on a week-by-week basis.
Nguyen: I think we’ve seen enough of Tucker this season to conclude that this isn’t just a slump. He’s cost them games and there is too much riding on this season to have the Ravens’ playoff hopes derailed by a kicker. As legendary as Tucker is, I think Baltimore has to at least explore other options at kicker. The ones available won’t have the ceiling that Tucker does, but he’s been terrible from over 50 yards this season and I can’t imagine it could get any worse. There’s a chance he’s able to get things together, but we’ve seen first-round quarterbacks get benched this season — no one should be safe if they’re costing you games.
Considering their style of play (and its relative success so far), do you buy the Chargers as a team that could move into AFC contender status when the weather gets ugly in January?
Jones: Strong defense and rushing attacks usually translate into success in the postseason. But until Sunday, the Chargers hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record; Atlanta was just a game above .500 and now drops to 6-6. But against the teams they’ll likely face in the postseason (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City), the Chargers are 0-3, getting outscored by a combined 67-43 and giving up an average of 354 yards per game.
The Chargers capitalized on Kirk Cousins making some really bad decisions on Sunday, which led to four crippling interceptions. They can’t expect Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson or even Josh Allen, who they don’t face this regular season, to be as reckless with the football. And 14.3 points per game (the Chargers’ scoring average against those AFC front-runners) won’t get the job done in the postseason. This is a great foundation that Jim Harbaugh and his players are laying, but they are not yet AFC contenders.
Nguyen: This team will need dominant efforts from its defense every week, and although that unit was lights out against the Falcons, it has faltered against top offenses. Before this week, the Chargers gave up a combined 57 points to the Bengals and Ravens.
The offense has improved but isn’t a unit that can win in a lot of shootouts. The running game was explosive with J.K. Dobbins but very inefficient. Also, the Chargers have one of the worst interior offensive lines in the league and give up a lot of pressures. Their only receiver who can catch the ball consistently is Ladd McConkey. If defenses stop him, L.A. just doesn’t have enough playmakers. How the defense performs against the Chiefs and Buccaneers in the next two weeks will tell us a lot more about how legitimate this defense is, and whether the Chargers are a serious playoff contender.
Pompei: The Chargers play the kind of football that translates well in ugly weather. They run the ball well. They can play the kind of defense that forces offensive mistakes. They have a quarterback who can win when the clock is ticking down. Their coach has been there before and has won big games. The Chargers have won five of six, and it’s possible they have not played their best football. Beating the Falcons on the road was a statement win, but their biggest challenge will be in Kansas City next Sunday night. A win over the Chiefs could make the Chargers believe they can beat any opponent.
Let’s get ahead of ourselves for a moment: Has free-agent-to-be Russell Wilson earned himself a multi-year commitment from the Steelers?
Pompei: What’s the definition of “multi-year”? Wilson is 36 and the issue is how many more years he can perform the way he’s performing now. Given how Wilson has lifted his team, the Steelers certainly should want him to be their quarterback in 2025. In a perfect world, they could sign him for one more season and see how that goes. But Wilson will be looking for more of a commitment, and if the Steelers aren’t willing to make it, another team probably will be. A three-year deal might be a fair compromise, as long as the Steelers have a way to get out of it after two years.
Jones: We’re not talking five-year deal here, but a two-year deal — or maaaaybe a three-year deal with an out for the Steelers — feels realistic. Wilson looks comfortable in this offense, and that comfort would likely increase in Year 2. But he has physical limitations. The Steelers keep sprinkling in Justin Fields when they want the threat of a rushing quarterback because they understand the need to protect Wilson. I don’t think a lengthy contract for Wilson, who just turned 36, is likely.
Nguyen: A short term, team-friendly deal would make sense. Locking in Wilson with a huge contract at his age wouldn’t be wise. This team is still built around the defense and running game. Wilson has done a great job of supplementing the offense and distributing the ball, but if his cap hit on a potential extension hurts their ability to keep together a strong defense, that could lead to trouble down the road. Additionally, if his mobility ever takes the type of hit that Aaron Rodgers’ has, Wilson’s game could fall off a cliff. Injuries have to be taken into consideration with older quarterbacks who want to create outside of the pocket.
We saw likely playoff teams in the Chiefs (two points), Texans (three) and Vikings (one point) win narrowly as favorites again. Do you consider tight wins against shaky (or worse) opponents a cause for concern, or something to be encouraged by going into the postseason?
Nguyen: The Vikings beat a pretty good Cardinals team, but as I’ve written in this column before, this Vikings team is shaky. If you sort out their blitzes — which is no easy task — that secondary can be exposed. Also, I’m not completely sold on Sam Darnold’s ability to perform in a pure passing game script just yet, though he played a pretty clean game today.
The Chiefs have major issues in pass protection and they’re having a difficult time pressuring the quarterback, which is why they’ve played in so many close games. I would normally say a team that has won this many coin flips is fraudulent but we’ve seen the Chiefs flip the switch so many times before, they get the benefit of the doubt.
The Texans are extremely flawed because their offensive line is so bad. I don’t know if I’m more concerned about any of these teams after this week. The issues that kept the games close have been the same ones that have plagued these teams throughout 2024.
Jones: You’d definitely like to see contenders crush weak opponents. But the truth is, it’s way harder to win games in this league than we often care to acknowledge. There’s often a fine line between 7-5 and 5-7, and at times between 9-2 and 2-9, especially if it’s a divisional matchup like we saw between the Chiefs and Raiders and Texans and Jaguars. Yes, great teams at times light up scoreboards and deliver breathtaking plays. But other times, great teams simply manage to keep self-inflicted wounds — especially under pressure — to a minimum.
We saw the Raiders burn themselves in high-pressure situations, and that’s why they’re the Raiders. I don’t at all fault the Vikings for not blowing out the Cardinals. Arizona is a good, well-rounded team with an offense that keeps defenses off balance, and a defense that keeps pressure on offenses. The Vikings should be encouraged by the resilience they showed as they forced the Cardinals to settle for a field goal late rather than surrendering a touchdown in the red zone, and then marched downfield and scored on that Darnold touchdown pass to Aaron Jones to win the game.
Pompei: A dominating win always is preferable to a close win, but tight games are much more common in the NFL. That’s why the league is so unpredictable and so watchable. And every team has flaws. There is something to be said for knowing how to win and creating good luck; it separates the contenders from the pretenders every season. Victories create confidence, even flimsy victories.
All three teams, but particularly the Chiefs and Vikings, should be confident in the final weeks. As long as they are winning, it really doesn’t matter how they are winning. But if there are consistent issues that are enabling inferior opponents to play it close (and there may be with all three), those issues could be fatal against more talented opponents.
(Top photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
