Heading into this Premier League weekend, Manchester City were top of the table and Arsenal were in second place.
It all feels extremely familiar.
In 2022-23, Arsenal lost home and away to City, and finished five points behind them. Last season, Arsenal beat City in London but drew with them in Manchester and ended up two points adrift of them in the final standings. When the margins separating the winners and losers in title races are tiny, winning away to your rivals for the trophy is important. But does the fact we are so early into the new season mean another stalemate at the Etihad Stadium today (Sunday) would suit Mikel Arteta’s visitors?
Both sides recorded goalless draws in their Champions League openers in midweek, but Pep Guardiola’s side head into this game with an extra 24 hours of rest in their legs and with Erling Haaland one away from becoming the first player to reach double figures for goals in his first five appearances of a Premier League season. However, he’s facing a defence who have conceded just three times in nine Premier League away games across the calendar year so far.
We asked our City writer (Sam Lee), one of our Arsenal writers (Art de Roche) and one of our data and tactics experts (Thom Harris) to ponder some key questions ahead of the fixture.
Will Arsenal’s mindset be that winning is essential this time?
That would definitely have been the case if they had not won at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, but that result changes things ever so slightly. Three points today would see Arsenal leapfrog City, but returning to north London with a draw shouldn’t be catastrophic. While many assumed they settled for a point on their last visit to City, Arsenal’s approach was similar to their two previous wins over them and that north London derby win last weekend. Gabriel Jesus and Leandro Trossard squandering chances was the difference. This time, they will look to be just as competitive but will need to be more clinical in those key offensive moments.
Art de Roche
(Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
I agree with Art — while it might not feel like it at the moment, City will drop points somewhere along the line, and it’s surely advisable to focus on staying within touching distance rather than going all out for a victory here and risk falling five points behind and having to play catch-up at this early stage. A point would be a precious one, and if Arsenal can keep it as tight as they did against Tottenham, they may well get a chance or two to nick all three anyway.
Thom Harris
Will City be able to cope with Arsenal’s set-piece threat?
Obviously, Arsenal are strong in that department but it is not as if City are particularly weak. Of the six first-team defenders likely to be selected, only 5ft 6in (169cm) Rico Lewis is small for a defender. The rest are Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, John Stones and Josko Gvardiol. Height is not the only determining factor, of course, and City are pretty tenacious when challenging for balls into the box, and it should not be underestimated that they know a thing or two about screening themselves; they have even benefited from NBA tactics via the Boston Celtics. City can be caught out from set pieces at times — who doesn’t? — but because they know that many teams visiting the Etihad will be focused on nicking an advantage from dead balls, they have to put in at least equal amounts of work to stop that from happening.
Sam Lee
Set plays are highly situational; a lapse in concentration, a lost individual duel or a particularly good cross can undo hours of hard work during the week. Still, the general dead-ball trends are revealing — while Arsenal have been extremely dangerous when it comes to attacking set-pieces since the start of last season, City have been by far and away the best at defending them. The below scatter chart tells us that Guardiola’s side have conceded just 1.6 goals per 100 set pieces, not including penalties — that equates to three in the last 186 they’ve faced – the best defensive rate among the 17 Premier League ever-presents in that time.
Records are there to be broken, though, and City haven’t looked completely infallible; Ethan Pinnock alone had three chances from corners at the Etihad last weekend, while fellow Brentford defender Nathan Collins was only denied by an instinctive Ederson save early in the first half. Having said that, the cautious, data-led suggestion would be that these two teams cancel each other out once again.
Thom Harris
(Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Is Haaland vs Arsenal’s centre-backs the key battle?
It will be one of a few key battles. Arsenal shut out Haaland in all three meetings last season (including the Community Shield), with the striker failing to even have a shot on target in any of those matches. Key to that was how William Saliba and fellow centre-back Gabriel took turns in getting tight and physical with him. They did not allow him to get any momentum, whether it was when running in behind or simply in getting a feel for the game. Replicating that will be important, as will how Arsenal decide to approach defending certain spaces. Their wingers were essential to keeping Spurs quiet last Sunday, and similar work could help in Manchester.
Art de Roche
Haaland is obviously City’s main scoring threat, but while we have all focused on his nine league goals in four games, including those back-to-back hat-tricks, it has probably gone unnoticed that there are not many goals coming from their other players. In that sense, if he cannot get service, or if he does but misses his chances, it severely impacts City’s chances of winning. On the other hand, we know he often goes through games without having many touches, and that this is largely by design — so he can pin centre-backs and create space in midfield for City’s other forwards.
(Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images)
In that sense, it is possible that he could win the battle by getting four touches and doing nothing of note all afternoon, as long as he keeps Saliba and Gabriel occupied and lets his colleagues get on with it. Whether Haaland scores or not will have a big say in the actual result, but it is just one aspect of this game — City will have to be good enough to get through the Arsenal press to try to create chances for him anyway.
Sam Lee
I very much agree with Sam here; the two centre-backs could nullify Haaland for 99 per cent of the game, only to be undone by a moment of quality — much like they were in City’s 3-1 win at the Emirates Stadium in February 2023, when he scored with virtually his first sight of goal with less than 10 minutes of the 90 to go.
Unstoppable 💪
Erling Haaland scored his 26th Premier League goal of the season against Arsenal 🤯#PLonPrime pic.twitter.com/uy2aXK91Lm
— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) February 16, 2023
The signs are encouraging for Arsenal, though — that is Haaland’s only goal in 359 minutes against the Saliba and Gabriel partnership across all competitions, racking up just 0.58 xG in close to four full games. His only truly dominant performance against Arteta’s side came when Rob Holding stepped in for an injured Saliba later that same season. I’ll continue to sit on the fence — keeping Haaland quiet is probably necessary for an Arsenal win, but it won’t guarantee one either.
Thom Harris
Should we expect a classic between the league’s best two teams?
While it would be nice, I am not expecting an all-timer of a game. After the three matches between the sides last season, and Arsenal’s recent matches against Spurs and Atalanta, it feels like another 90 minutes of tension is on the horizon. Arteta tried to go blow-for-blow against City in his first title challenge in 2022-23, but individual mistakes crept in and allowed Guardiola’s side to run away with the match. His switch to more of a ‘Plan B’ for bigger games was a welcome change last season and has kept Arsenal in these encounters. If the Spaniard had the midfield three he envisaged in the summer (Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice and Mikel Merino) available then things may have been different, but he doesn’t — so expect more of the same.
Art de Roche
I remember one thing very clearly from after the goalless draw at the Etihad in March: I did not want the two clubs to meet again in the Champions League semi-finals, which was possible at the time. I had been expecting a good game before kick-off that Sunday, because most of City’s recent title deciders, home or away, had been pretty dramatic, with excellent football on show — and we obviously got nowhere near that. It may just be that was what Jurgen Klopp brought to the party when his Liverpool team were City’s main challengers, and Arteta has a different way of facing these big games.
That said, it is not like Guardiola never chooses a defensive approach. City’s game plan at the Emirates last year was to escape with a 0-0, given he was concerned about the absence of a suspended Rodri from his midfield. And City were not at their best in the return game, either. It is not controversial to say that if Arteta wants his team to dig in, then it is harder to imagine a classic, just by the nature of the encounter. It could still be a good game if both teams take their chances, of course, but who says Arsenal are going to go with the same game plan anyway?
Sam Lee
Very happy to be wrong on this one, but I feel like an early-ish goal is the only thing that will relieve us from another tense battle of attrition.
Thom Harris
This fixture ended 6-3 in 2013 but today’s game is unlikely to have nine goals (Martin Rickett/PA Images via Getty Images)
Who will be the bigger miss, Kevin De Bruyne (if he doesn’t recover) or Odegaard?
Although De Bruyne is one of the Premier League’s best-ever midfielders, City’s strength in depth makes his absences easier to deal with. Arsenal have lacked any real tempo without Odegaard, as he is instrumental to what they do on the ball in all thirds of the pitch. Considering there has been such a stark stylistic difference without him in the side, it does not feel too rogue to suggest that Arsenal’s captain would be the bigger miss. Aside from goal contributions, Odegaard is almost always the player who sets the tone for Arsenal with and without the ball, and he will be a massive miss during this ongoing injury lay-off.
For an example of how influential he is, last season he was one of just two Arsenal players to be involved in at least two actions that were either build-up, chance creation or a shot per 90 minutes. The other was Bukayo Saka, with Odegaard understandably registering higher numbers in build-up and chance creation.
Art de Roche
I agree with Art. City have proved they can get by without De Bruyne basically every time he has been injured, going back years. Given his quality, that is quite an achievement. He missed a lot of 2018-19, quite a bit of 2020-21 and half of last season, and City won the title in all three years anyway. They have always had the players, or tactical tweaks, that mean they can more than make up for De Bruyne’s absence. In 2018-19, it was Bernardo Silva operating from the middle, two years later they embraced the false-nine system which involved Bernardo and Ilkay Gundogan pinging the ball around for fun, and last year they just kind of got by in a variety of ways, with no particular stand-out replacement. On the other hand, Odegaard is one of Arsenal’s (and the Premier League’s) best players, and they do not have equivalent squad depth.
Sam Lee
(Michael Regan/Getty Images)
I’ll play devil’s advocate. City have scored 17 goals against Arteta’s Arsenal in the Premier League; De Bruyne has had a hand in six of them, despite playing around 54 per cent of the total minutes. His impact on this often title-tilting fixture is unparalleled, and City will clearly miss his clinical edge in games such as this. He has started the season in dominant form too, second only to Dwight McNeil of Everton for chances created, while his 162 passes in the attacking third puts him 65 clear of any other player in the division.
The argument that City are more equipped to deal with De Bruyne’s absence is fair, but there is nobody quite like the Belgian for blowing games like this wide open, and given Arsenal’s recent solidity, the defending champions could miss that spark.
Thom Harris
(Top photos: Getty Images)
