College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Could Deion Sanders, Colorado sneak into field?

On Saturday, while Deion Sanders and Colorado sat at home and Travis Hunter did a Heisman Trophy media tour of national pregame shows, the Buffaloes were among the biggest winners in the College Football Playoff race.

Iowa State lost at home to Texas Tech and trimmed the list of undefeated Big 12 teams to just one. Not long after, Kansas State tripped up in Houston, suffering its second Big 12 loss and falling behind the Buffaloes in the conference standings after beating Colorado last month.

Now Colorado, which won a single conference game a season ago and trailed 28-0 at halftime to Nebraska in Week 2, has a real path to the Playoff. This is the benefit of the current iteration of the Playoff: Every conference race has relevance. And the Buffaloes are right in the thick of the Big 12 race.

Two weeks ago, six teams in the league had one conference loss or fewer. After the inevitable chaos arrived in the most wide-open power conference, there are only three. And one of them is Colorado.

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BYU is the Big 12’s lone remaining undefeated team, and the Buffaloes are now tied with Iowa State in second place. The Buffaloes travel to Texas Tech this weekend and finish the season with games against three teams sitting in the bottom four of the conference. Neither BYU nor Iowa State will face Colorado.

Iowa State still has Kansas State and Cincinnati, two teams in the top half of the conference. BYU still has a good chance to finish 12-0 but travels to rival Utah and Arizona State and hosts improving Kansas and Houston.

Colorado wide receiver-defensive back Travis Hunter is one of the favorites in the Heisman Trophy race. (Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)

All Colorado needs to control its fate for the Playoff is one Iowa State loss. If it doesn’t get it, it might still qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game via tiebreakers. (Note: How the tiebreakers are applied likely will depend on if BYU loses and, if it does, who it loses to.)

At that point, Sanders and the Buffs would be 60 minutes away from the Playoff.

It’s a new world of college football, and no power conference team can be counted out until the heart of conference play arrives. Colorado is living proof of that.

Each week, Bubble Watch will examine who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle leading up to the first 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The five highest-ranked conference champions will get an automatic Playoff berth. Find Austin Mock’s model’s bracket projections here.

ACC

Clemson’s ugly home loss to Louisville delivered a massive hit to the ACC’s odds of putting two teams into the bracket.

But it does eliminate the possibility of an ugly tiebreaker scenario among three teams undefeated in conference play. Clemson doesn’t have a win that will impact the committee and has two losses. The Tigers will need a lot of help to land an at-large bid if they don’t win the ACC.

SMU has a decent resume but may still come up short of an at-large bid at 11-1 if it can’t win the ACC. Miami is the league’s only team with a great shot to do so. If chaos strikes in the last month of the season, Pitt and Louisville are still looming to steal an ACC title game spot.

Big Ten

Ohio State’s win over Penn State was a massive win for the Big Ten. The odds of landing three teams in the Playoff look like a near certainty, and four is well within reach. Indiana continues to be dominant, getting to 9-0 with an average margin of victory of 32.9 points and winning all nine games by at least 14.

An Ohio State loss to Penn State might have made the Indiana-Ohio State game on Nov. 23 a Playoff elimination game. Instead, both teams could still have legit Playoff hopes with a loss, although it’ll be a nervy Selection Sunday if the loser doesn’t play for the title in Indianapolis.

One of the league’s top four teams may be very sad when the final rankings drop, but it’s hard to imagine anyone else in the league playing its way into legitimate Playoff contention.

Big 12

Kansas State’s and Iowa State’s losses opened the door for an impossibly sexy proposition for the Playoff (see above), but it did major damage to the league’s hopes of landing an at-large bid. Iowa State is the league’s only team with a real shot, but it will have to run the table and hope Kansas State keeps winning to make an Iowa State win in Farmageddon look as good as possible.

Even then, it might take BYU getting to the Big 12 title game and losing to Iowa State, Colorado or K-State for the league to get more than one team.

SEC

The SEC has five teams with one conference loss. Good luck sorting out who makes it to Atlanta. The race for the automatic bid is going to be unpredictable down the stretch.

The four teams “in the mix” have a real shot to play their way into or out of the field during the season’s final month, especially as the ACC and Big 12 were coughing up bids on an upset-filled Saturday when Clemson, Iowa State and Kansas State all lost.

Vanderbilt and Missouri are looming with two conference losses, but there are too many teams between them and the top for either to reasonably reach Atlanta. Plus, both have ugly losses (Georgia State for Vanderbilt, A&M/Alabama for Mizzou) that make an at-large bid seem almost impossible.

Group of 5

Running back Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman campaign has slowed in recent weeks, but Boise State’s Playoff hopes have surged as competition has fallen off. And if we get a surprise winner in the Big 12 … could the Broncos sneak into the No. 4 seed with the Group of 5 automatic bid? It’s possible, but we’ll have a better idea of the odds when the committee releases its first rankings on Tuesday. If Boise State is ranked higher than any Power 4 conference champion on Selection Sunday, it will get the bye into the quarterfinals as the No. 4 seed.

Boise State has a chance to avoid a rematch with UNLV if Colorado State keeps winning. The Rams are tied atop the Mountain West standings at 4-0 and none of the three play each other in the final month of the season, so it could come down to a tiebreaker if Colorado State loses. Army is still looming in the American but doesn’t have the resume strength of Boise State and seems unlikely to crack the committee’s Top 25, despite being one of just five remaining undefeated FBS teams.

Navy and Memphis: Thanks for playing. The Midshipmen lost for the second consecutive week, and Memphis went on the road and gave up 44 points in a loss to UTSA. Those two are removed from the Playoff conversation.

Others

The Irish didn’t need any more help, but they got it anyway from the ACC and Big 12.

Mock’s model gives the Irish an 89 percent chance to make the field, and Notre Dame keeps moving up the seeding lines, too. Army will be the Irish’s toughest remaining game, and rival USC continues to slide, falling to 4-5 with a loss Saturday at Washington.

(Top photo: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)