We, as a species, have trouble imagining something until it actually happens. The NBA playoffs are a perfect vessel from which to view this particular shortcoming.
The Boston Celtics just completed a regular season in which they won 64 games, winning their conference by a staggering 14 games and posting the fifth-best scoring margin of all time at plus-11.3 points per game. They won or split the season series with 28 of their 29 opponents (good job, Denver), had no losing streak longer than two games and now take no significant injuries into the postseason.
And yet, it seems hard to find people who would describe Boston as an overwhelming favorite, because they haven’t seen this group of Celtics win it all but have seen them fall short several times.
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We’ve seen this movie before, of course. Nobody will admit it today, but a lot of people had a hard time imagining the Denver Nuggets winning the Western Conference, let alone the NBA Finals, last spring … even though they were the top seed in the conference, had a two-time MVP as their centerpiece and their starting five was dominant anytime it played together. Some folks even talked themselves into the Lakers–Warriors second-round series — between two teams that combined to go 87-77 in the regular season — as the “real” conference finals.
Yeah, not so much.
Flip to 2024, and we almost have the opposite problem. People speak of the Nuggets in hallowed terms, with the word “inevitable” being thrown around. Don’t get me wrong — they’re good — but that description may be a bit rich for a team that’s always one injury away from playing extremely makeshift lineups. Nitpickers also will point out that Denver glided through a cleaned-out bracket last year, facing two eighth seeds and a seventh seed on the way to glory. The Nuggets were worthy, asterisk-free 2023 champions, but 2024 is a different year.
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And the Celtics? Until the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown core wins the big one in June, they’ll always have doubters. But that’s no different from several other eventual champions; people thought the same thing about the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (did too) and Kevin Garnett’s Celtics and Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavs and countless others, right up until last year’s Nuggets.
I must point out the odds are pretty heavily in Boston’s favor to get it done this time. Of the 15 teams to post a margin of plus-9.3 or greater in an 82-game NBA season — taking us two points below what the Celtics did — only the 2015-16 Warriors (who lost the NBA Finals in seven games) and the 2015-16 Spurs failed to win a title. The other 13 won, many in romps.
Even if you just look at basic wins and losses, teams that both win 60 games and have the league’s best record have ended up winning the title more than half the time: 16 times in 31 cases. The last one of those was Phoenix in 2022, which went out with a whimper in the second round against Dallas after winning the same 64 games these Celtics won, so that recency bias may be tilting us a little.
I’ll give you another reason to like Boston: The Celtics are one of only four teams in the “52-3-3” club, and the only one in the East. Of the NBA’s 44 champions since 1980, 43 of them won at least 52 games (pro-rated to 82 for shortened campaigns), had at least a plus-3.0 scoring margin and were one of the top three seeds in their conference. That winnows down your field of potential champions to the top three seeds in the West (Oklahoma City, Denver and Minnesota) and the Celtics.
To counter my point, some argue load management, not to mention general coasting by elite teams, has made the regular season less determinative than it used to be. Last spring, for instance, we had first-round upsets by teams seeded fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth, with a No. 7 seed making the West finals (Lakers) and a No. 8 seed (Miami) crashing the NBA Finals. Lower-seeded teams won seven of the 15 series overall. (From that perspective, reviewing my own performance, getting nine of the 15 bracket lines correct before the playoffs started feels pretty good.)
But even in recent history, a postseason like last year’s is rare. A typical NBA playoffs only sees four teams without home-court advantage advance out of the 15 series; we only had two in 2019, 2017 and 2015, and before last year, we hadn’t had more than five since 1995.
However, perhaps this season the playoffs are rife for more upsets because the standings are so jumbled (well, except for Boston). Every East playoff team besides the Celtics finished with between 46 and 50 wins; the striations in the West were a bit deeper, but every series still looks competitive up and down the board.
Projecting this postseason was maddening, especially in the East. But the bigger issue is adjusting for the unknown of who is actually playing. Late-season injuries to elite players could massively tilt the odds if they can’t play. Already we’ve seen that in the Play-In, with Zion Williamson and Jimmy Butler out and Alex Caruso questionable.
More questions loom for the first round. How much are we going to see of Giannis Antetokounmpo? Joel Embiid? Kawhi Leonard? And what of guys like Tyrese Haliburton and Donovan Mitchell, who are almost certainly playing but might not be at full strength?
So, we bravely go into this knowing the potential to look stupid is off the charts. Even the Celtics, as dominant as they were in the regular season, don’t necessarily get a free pass to the title. As good as they are up and down the roster, they won’t have the best player on the floor in several potential matchups, which is always worrisome. Additionally, injuries, slumps, hot streaks and general weirdness can always throw a wrench into a short series.
But we don’t aim for clairvoyance here. I am just trying to project what is likely. Inevitably, I won’t go 15-for-15 or anywhere close to it. However, after agonizing over several matchups — particularly in the 1-4-5 bracket in the West — here’s what I think is most likely to happen this postseason. Apologies if it’s chalkier than you’d prefer.
West first round
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Sacramento Kings or New Orleans Pelicans
I’m not sure these will be totally comfortable series for the Thunder, even if they play the Pelicans without Williamson. New Orleans has waves of defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Brandon Ingram has always played better when he’s not sharing the court with Williamson. Sacramento, meanwhile, has the ability to physically mash OKC with Domantas Sabonis and won two of the four regular-season meetings between the teams.
But there’s a big difference between being uncomfortable and being on the wrong side of the scoreboard four times in seven games. Sacramento is also short-handed because of late-season injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, leaving it underpowered against a Thunder team that has too many offensive weapons of its own. I’ll give the Kings their respect and say they can extend the series a bit, while New Orleans probably only has enough left in the tank to grab one game. Pick: Thunder in six vs. Kings; Thunder in five vs. Pelicans
Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander celebrate after a play against the Timberwolves in March. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)
No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
My basic rule of thumb is that teams without home-court advantage in the first round are toast unless they at least split the season series. The Lakers lost to Denver 3-0.
Here’s the other, more compelling reason to pick against Los Angeles: Even when Anthony Davis and LeBron James were on the court together, the Lakers just weren’t that good. They finished the season with a plus-0.6 scoring margin, the worst of any of the 18 teams with a winning regular-season record. Even with their dynamic duo on the floor, they were only plus-3.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s the worst number on the board from a playoff team with its two best players, except for New Orleans.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets are ridiculous when their starters play. To the extent they struggled this season, it was almost entirely with bench-heavy whatever units soaking up minutes. Heck, even when they played Aaron Gordon as the backup five and not one of Zeke Nnaji or DeAndre Jordan, they still had a better scoring margin than the Lakers.
As a result, I don’t think this chapter in the series will go much better for Los Angeles than the previous ones. The Lakers have played a series of close games against Denver over the last two years and will eventually win at least one of them. But if Nikola Jokić finishes the series upright, it’s hard to see how Denver doesn’t advance. Pick: Nuggets in five
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No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns
One of my best preseason predictions — or so I thought — was that Minnesota would win a playoff series for the first time since 2004. And then this happens! The Wolves drew perhaps the worst possible opponent in Phoenix, a team that beat them soundly three times in the regular season.
Moreover, the reason the Suns beat them makes conceptual sense. The Wolves love drop coverage and excel at keeping opponents away from the rim; the Suns aren’t all that interested in getting there in the first place. Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant are Team Pull-Up, devouring opponents by raining jumpers when they can get space coming around a screen. Additionally, the Suns afford no clear hiding spot for Karl-Anthony Towns, forcing him to check a perimeter scorer.
Obviously there are adjustments Minnesota can make to take this away, but this isn’t how the Wolves want to play or what they do best. The most radical adjustment would be to limit the minutes of Towns and Naz Reid and go massively smaller with Kyle Anderson at the four, but that may compromise Minnesota’s spacing too much. The other adjustment, of course, is to score so much that it doesn’t matter; the Suns are not an overwhelming defensive squad, and the Wolves might be able to mash them to pieces in the paint.
Nonetheless, the story here feels more about Phoenix. After a series of fits and starts, Phoenix closed the year on a 30-15 clip and finally projects as the team we thought it might be at the start of the season. The Suns aren’t deep, but their starting five had a plus-11.1 per 100 scoring margin, and several units with Eric Gordon or Royce O’Neale were nearly as good. Phoenix may not have the depth to make a deep run, especially up front, and health worries always hang over this team’s four best players. But in a single short series against a perfect matchup for them, where they come in healthy? Yeah, they’re a handful. Pick: Suns in six
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No. 4 LA Clippers vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
This one is a great unknown on some levels, and not just because of Leonard’s uncertain status.
These teams haven’t played since Dec. 20, and even that game was missing both Paul George and Kyrie Irving. While the Clippers won two of three in the regular season, both teams have changed dramatically since opening day. The Clippers added James Harden, moved Russell Westbrook to the bench and upgraded Amir Coffey to a rotation spot; Dallas traded for Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington and retooled around them.
Both teams also have had awesome stretches — a 16-2 run by Dallas before shutting its players down for the year, a 32-9 half-season eruption from the Clippers — and have impressive numbers with their stars on the court. Dallas outscores opponents by 10.5 points per 100 when Luka Dončić and Irving share the court, while the Clippers are plus-12.6 per 100 with George and Leonard.
These teams also met in the playoffs in 2020 and 2021, with the 2021 series in particular being a seven-game classic in which the road team won the first six games. The Clippers won both of those series and, on paper, would seem to have a slight edge in this one; first, because three stars are better than two; and second, because their second-line players are better than Dallas’, even with the trade deadline upgrades.
But Playoff Luka has been a cheat code, and I’m not sure Leonard can match him in his current state. Go back and look at the series from 2021: That Clippers team was much stronger than this one, with peak Leonard and an impressive bench; they screwed with load management all year and still ended up with a plus-6 scoring margin, and yet in the playoffs, they had their hands full with Luka. Dončić is going to attack Ivica Zubac again and again in pick-and-roll, just like he did in that series, and I’m not sure what the Clippers’ counters are.
Now that Dončić has Irving as his wingman, even if the second-line guys aren’t as good, I still like Dallas’ chances. That’s especially true when the alternative is betting on Leonard to stay healthy through a postseason series. I expect this series to be tremendous theater, and if Leonard is healthy, the Clippers are a real threat to make the conference finals. But if forced to choose, I trust Dallas a bit more. Pick: Mavs in seven
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East first round
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls
Let’s see, the most dominant team in the league facing either the Heat without Butler or the Bulls potentially without Caruso. Yeah, this should be brief. Boston swept both teams 3-0 in the regular season; all three wins over Chicago were by double figures. Maybe the underdogs take a game while the Celtics play with their food; more likely, though, the end is merciful and quick. Pick: Celtics in four
No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid showed in the Play-In against Miami that he still isn’t quite at full strength with his movement, and that hurt the Sixers at times. Even so, Philadelphia is now an impressive 30-7 this season when Embiid and Tyrese Maxey both play, with the Sixers outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per 100 possessions in the minutes they share the court together. That’s impressive, but two things worry me about Philly.
First, I just don’t think its supporting cast is good enough, especially if De’Anthony Melton can’t make it back into the mix. Second, the Knicks have some awesome numbers of their own. The small sample size of OG Anunoby minutes has seen them crush teams. More notably, even in the much larger sample of minutes with virtually any combination of Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein, they’ve run teams off the floor. New York is plus-15.2 per 100 when those four play together, and thanks to Tom Thibodeau, we have a pretty large minutes sample to work with from that group.
Not having Julius Randle is a bit of a worry, but the Knicks on-off numbers with and without Randle this year aren’t all that different; where his absence hurts is if another injury hits and forces secondary players into prominent roles. In particular, if anything happens to Brunson, the Knicks have nobody who can dribble; their offense already craters when he’s off the floor.
It’s tempting to ride Embiid and pick Philly for the upset, but I think this series ends up underscoring that the Sixers need to get him and Maxey more help this summer. Pick: Knicks in six
Joel Embiid has only played a few games since returning from a meniscus injury. (Bill Streicher / USA Today)
No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers
You could tell me literally anything about how this series ends and it wouldn’t surprise me.
Immediately, it sets off my danger radar because Indiana beat the Bucks four times in the regular season, including the In-Season Tournament semifinal in Las Vegas, which is one of the conditions to look for when scouting potential first-round upsets. Additionally, Antetokounmpo is likely to miss some time at the start of the series. (While we’re here: Game 3 is at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on a Friday. What the hell, NBA?)
My numbers say the advantage tilts toward Indy in the non-Giannis games, exposing the rot in the Bucks’ second unit due to age and cap constraints. If the Pacers can keep pushing tempo, they can make their superior depth a factor as the series wears on.
However, note that all five meetings happened before the Bucks changed coaches; as our Seth Partnow and Kelly Iko noted, Milwaukee’s transition defense improved under Doc Rivers after the Pacers ran the Bucks off the floor in their early season wins over them.
Two things hold me back from picking the Indy upset. First, Haliburton still doesn’t quite seem all the way back to being the player he was in December. Second, the trade of Buddy Hield left an open sore at shooting guard, one the Pacers can only sort of fill with the T.J. McConnell Experience because of how he overlaps with Haliburton. If Giannis comes back and plays at some point, I think the Bucks hang on. Pick: Bucks in seven
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Orlando Magic
This is another series in which the health of a star is a major factor, as Mitchell’s sore knee looms over this one. He wasn’t himself for most of the second half of the season but did come back and score 29 and 33 points in two games last week.
It’s a high-pressure series for the Cavs, given the questions hanging over Mitchell’s future and the roster in general. Cleveland leaned into a 3-point-heavy style built around Mitchell and floor spacers during Evan Mobley’s absence but flamed out late, going 12-17 after the All-Star break while dealing with Mitchell’s injury and trying to reintegrate Mobley.
Nonetheless, tanking their final game against Charlotte handed them the benefit of a first-round series against Orlando. The Magic are tough, physical and live in the paint, but that’s probably a thing the Cavs can handle given that they have two elite rim protectors in Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Orlando desperately needs some perimeter players to make shots and open up the paint; we’re looking at you, Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris.
Also: Don’t expect a lot of scoring. Mitchell will have his hands full with Suggs’ defense, while Paolo Banchero has to deal with the Cavs’ Mobley. Orlando will be searching for floor spacing all series; the Cavs likely will be, too, depending on who plays. Which coach goes for offense guys first?
Historically, these series go to the No. 5 seed about half the time, so on paper, Orlando has a chance. Cleveland won the season series 2-1, but the last meeting was in January. This feels like one where the Cavs maybe don’t always look great but do enough to survive and advance. Pick: Cavs in six
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West semifinals
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
Consider this the first installment in what could be a tremendous Red River rivalry over the next few years.
This is new territory for the Thunder’s youngsters, but that doesn’t mean they can’t hang at this level. Oklahoma City’s guard-heavy style translates well to the postseason, and look at how well the Thunder played with their best players on the court: Units with Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren smoked opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions, a number that improved to 12.0 in units with those two and Jalen Williams. That’s even better than how Dallas fared in Dončić-Irving pairings.
Oklahoma City won two of the three regular-season meetings, but the last one was a gimme in which the Mavs sat all their players and the Thunder won by 49. Of more import, perhaps, is a game on Feb. 2 when the Mavs smoked them 146-111. That also was the only game Dončić played against Oklahoma City this season. Because of that, there’s a temptation to roll with Dallas, but a few things tilt me back to the Thunder.
First of all, Gilgeous-Alexander is Dončić’s equal as a scorer and shot creator, if not as a passer, and I’m not sure Dallas has anyone who can slow him down defensively. Along the same vein, Oklahoma City’s small lineups could run Dallas’ bigs off the floor and force the Mavs to dip even further into their bag of not-so-great forwards and wings. Tactically, Mark Daigneault has shown he has a lot more tricks in his bag than Jason Kidd, and that could also matter in a long, close series.
All of these tie into a bigger question: How, exactly, are the Mavs getting stops in this series? I’m not sure they are. Even when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the court or double-teamed, look at his supporting cast. The Thunder don’t have Irving, but they do have Holmgren, Williams and three or four random guys they can bring in and get a double-figure scoring lift from (Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, maybe even Gordon Hayward) without compromising themselves on defense. They may need at least one of them if Josh Giddey gets schemed off the court.
Finally, we can’t forecast injuries, but we can say the Thunder’s depth makes them more resilient to any non-SGA injury than the Mavs would be. Add it all up and I’ll pick the Thunder for another round. Pick: Thunder in seven
No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns
In a repeat of the second-round series from a year ago, I’m not sure this one goes any better for the Suns.
Last year, the Suns evened the series 2-2 behind a scorching hot Booker before Denver’s defense took control over the final two games. This time around, Beal replaces Chris Paul and Jusuf Nurkić supplants Deandre Ayton, and the Suns have better answers off the pine than the assorted T.J. Warrens and Terence Rosses they turned to last spring. Phoenix also won two of the three regular-season meetings.
Nonetheless, I can’t see the movie ending differently for the Suns this time, not when Durant is a year older and the Nuggets’ starting five still dominates games to such a massive extent. Even the elite numbers put up by Phoenix’s best lineups are no match for what the Nuggets have done in Jokić-Jamal Murray minutes (a staggering plus-15.2) or in several similar combinations with different starters; the starting group as a whole is plus-13.6 per 100.
A year ago, it felt like the Suns were overmatched once Booker’s scorching hot hand cooled off a little; this time around, the vibes feel similar. Phoenix can shoot its way to a couple wins, most likely, but not four times out of seven. Pick: Nuggets in six
Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and the Suns love to live in the midrange. Is that a winning strategy against Denver? (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)
East semifinals
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland’s best game of the second half of the season came March 5, when the Cavs rallied from a 22-point fourth-quarter deficit with nine minutes left to defeat Boston 105-104 without Mitchell. However, they lost their other two meetings against Boston and, on paper, don’t seem to have the horses to hang with the Celtics. With Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, Boston can throw multiple elite perimeter defenders at Mitchell too. (Yeah, this bracket isn’t doing poor Donovan any favors.)
The Cavs might not have enough spacing against Boston unless they can play smaller, but they lost one of their best alternate options to an Allen-Mobley frontcourt with Dean Wade’s knee sprain. Wade, a stretch four who torched Boston in that comeback win, missed the final 19 regular-season games. It’s not clear when he’ll be back.
This one feels like another fairly comfortable series for Boston. With a full-bore Mitchell, the Cavs have enough talent to take a game or two, but in a best-of-seven series, Boston’s superior perimeter size, backcourt defense and shooting should win the day. Pick: Celtics in five
No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks
This shapes up as a good series on paper; I’m not sure it will play out that way in reality.
The Bucks did win three of the five games between the teams in the regular season, but four of those happened before New Year’s Day. New York won the most recent meeting, with intact rosters on both sides.
The Bucks also don’t seem well-equipped to handle Brunson’s slippery pick-and-roll game, with Holiday gone and Damian Lillard in his place. They’ll try Patrick Beverley, surely, but he also tends to rack up fouls.
On the flip side, the addition of Anunoby gives the Knicks a go-to defender to use on Antetokounmpo, and they still have a couple of secondary options (Hartenstein, Precious Achiuwa) in reserve. One other factor to watch: The Knicks wrecked people on the offensive glass, leading the league in offensive rebound rate, but the Bucks were very good on the defensive boards, finishing fifth.
Bigger picture, this is a call on what the Knicks built during the second half of the season, a whole-greater-than-the-sum unit that stampeded the league when intact. The Bucks have the best player in Antetokounmpo, and the Knicks’ lack of perimeter size is a bit worrisome, but I still like New York. Pick: Knicks in six
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West finals
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets
The Thunder and Nuggets played three times this season, with the Nuggets completing outclassing them in the first meeting, the Thunder doing the same in the last and the middle game going down to the wire before Gilgeous-Alexander made a shot in the final seconds to give the Thunder a one-point win.
Sounds like a good formula for a great series, right? This wasn’t a case of the Thunder’s subs beating up on Denver’s subs, either. Jokić was a minus-7 over the three games, while Gilgeous-Alexander was a plus-2. That’s important because the starters are likely to play a much bigger chunk of the game in the playoffs than in the regular season, and Denver’s starters are awesome.
How awesome? Every Denver four-man combo with at least four of the starters had a double-figure per 100 scoring margin. The Nuggets were dramatically worse when they had to play multiple bench players at the same time, with virtually every two-man combo featuring two bench players having a negative margin, but that figures to happen much less in the playoffs.
The Thunder, meanwhile, had more distributed excellence; a lot of their second-unit groups were highly productive, especially ones with Joe in them. However, those groups tend to play a lot less in the playoffs, and if they are used more, they’re going against starters instead of backups.
This could be a classic between the likely top-two finishers in MVP voting; it also may be the first series in which the Thunder’s lack of playoff experience comes to bear. Between that and the Jokić cheat code, I still like the Nuggets to prevail in a tough series. Pick: Nuggets in six
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East finals
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 New York Knicks
A Boston-New York conference finals will definitely break the league record for eff-youz between fans. Could it be competitive on the court too? I’m less sure of that.
New York won the final meeting between the teams after Boston had already clinched the East’s top seed, but the Celtics won the first four times they played, and three of them were by double figures.
Two things stand out here. First, the Celtics can throw both White and Holiday at Brunson, forcing him to earn his points against two of the best guard defenders in basketball. Second, New York’s smallness on the wings could be more of a factor when the Knicks are trying to check Tatum and Brown; Anunoby can handle one of them, but they’re asking a 6-4 guy to take the other.
You can see other angles that might not favor New York either; Boston can bring better players off its bench, and if any injury attrition happens, that also favors the Celtics. It’s been a heck of a year for New York, but this is where I get off the bandwagon. Pick: Celtics in six
Jamal Murray drives against Jayson Tatum in Boston earlier this season. (David Butler II / USA Today)
NBA Finals
No. 1. Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets
You might have guessed my prediction from the intro. I had Boston over Phoenix before the season started, but the Suns haven’t quite looked strong enough, so I’ve pivoted.
The Nuggets have proven themselves in these situations, and their starting groups are lethal. But Boston’s excellence extends throughout the rotation, and the Celtics will have a massive advantage any time bench units are involved. Yes, that figures to happen less in an NBA Finals series than in a regular-season pairing, but those minutes still count.
Denver did win two close games against Boston in the regular season, and both were legit, asterisk-free matchups in which each team played its starters. Oddly, both teams shot horribly from 3, a trend that would favor the Nuggets if it held up in the Finals simply because they shoot so few of them.
In the end, you wonder if 3s will mater in a different way, in that math might be Boston’s difference-maker: The Celtics took 3s on a league-leading 47.1 percent of their field goal attempts, while the Nuggets were last at 35.2 percent.
Regardless, this shapes up as an awesome, get-your-popcorn series, featuring the league’s best player and defending champion against its most dominant regular-season team.
I know the Tatum-era Celtics have struggled in some of these moments before, but they’ve been the best team all year by a wide margin. This time, I think they finally get over the hump. Pick: Celtics in seven
(Top photo of Nikola Jokić and Kristaps Porzingis: Winslow Townson / Getty Images)
