The 2023-24 Broadway season was rich with new plays and, let’s say, crowded with new musicals. Revivals were rarer — not a bad thing, necessarily. But the combination of factors makes for quite a horse race as the Tony Awards presentation approaches. So take my annual Tonys “ballot” with the usual caveats, listed below, and with a grain of salt for my highly unscientific commentary within each category. As always, that includes a plea for the addition of new awards; if we can change, why can’t the Tonys?
1. I’m not an oddsmaker. I don’t actually vote. Prizes for artistic merit are silly. You could probably do better by flipping a coin.
2. The people and productions listed in the “Should Win” category are not necessarily more deserving than those in “Will Win.” There’s often little if any excellence gap between the two groups.
3. The “Should Have Been Nominated” category obviously includes Broadway work that was eligible but spurned. Less obviously, it also includes work from Off Broadway and beyond (indicated by an *asterisk*) that’s totally ineligible for the Tonys, just because.
Best Play
WILL WIN
“Stereophonic”
Should win
“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”
“Mary Jane”
Should have been nominated
“Primary Trust”*
“Infinite Life”*
“The Comeuppance”*
“Jonah”*
Four cheers for Off Broadway, where so many Broadway plays start — including this year’s “Stereophonic, “Mary Jane,” “Appropriate” and “Prayer for the French Republic.” And a fifth cheer for “Primary Trust,” which won the 2024 Pulitzer Prize for Drama.
Best Musical
WILL WIN
“Hell’s Kitchen”
Should win
“Illinoise”
Should have been nominated
“Days of Wine and Roses”
“Dead Outlaw”*
“Terce”*
Is the all-dance, no-dialogue “Illinoise” even a musical? (For that matter, is “Stereophonic,” with its great songs, a play?) No matter, as long as they both get a prize.
Best Play Revival
WILL WIN
“Appropriate”
Should win
“Purlie Victorious”
Should have been nominated
“Wedding Band”*
Best play revival is a slim category, with just three nominees, all excellent. But “Purlie” was more than a revival: It was a reclamation. That’s also why, for the second year in a row, I’m putting Alice Childress’s 1962 play on my list — this time for a production at the Stratford Festival in Ontario. It can take multiple revivals to ensure survival.
Best Musical Revival
WILL WIN
“Merrily We Roll Along”
Should win
“Merrily We Roll Along”
Should have been nominated
The Encores! season*
“Jelly’s Last Jam” was mind-blowing. “Once Upon a Mattress” was a joy. “Titanic” is yet to come but even if it sinks, this was the best Encores! season in years.
Best Actor in a Play
WILL WIN
Jeremy Strong, “An Enemy of the People”
Should win
Leslie Odom Jr., “Purlie Victorious”
Should have been nominated
Cole Escola, “Oh, Mary!”*
William Jackson Harper, “Primary Trust”*
Harper is an actual best actor nominee for his fine Broadway turn as Astrov in “Uncle Vanya.” But his Off Broadway performance in “Primary Trust” was the most moving I saw all season …
Best Actress in a Play
WILL WIN
Sarah Paulson, “Appropriate”
Should win
Jessica Lange, “Mother Play”
Should have been nominated
Anika Noni Rose, “Uncle Vanya”
Gabby Beans, “Jonah”*
… unless the most moving performance I saw all season was Beans’s in “Jonah.”
Best Actor in a Musical
WILL WIN
Jonathan Groff, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Should win
Brian D’Arcy James, “Days of Wine and Roses”
Should have been nominated
Corey Cott, “The Heart of Rock and Roll”
Andrew Durand, “Dead Outlaw”*
Nicholas Christopher, “Jelly’s Last Jam”*
Jukebox musicals are not usually my thing, but I have to make an exception for Cott in “The Heart of Rock and Roll.” A leading man who leaves it all on the floor, whatever the floor is, demands attention.
Best Actress in a Musical
WILL WIN
Maleah Joi Moon, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Should win
Kelli O’Hara, “Days of Wine and Roses”
Should have been nominated
Sutton Foster, “Once Upon a Mattress”*
Ruthie Ann Miles, “The Light in the Piazza”*
It is hard to believe that Maleah Joi Moon wasn’t trained from birth for her wow of a debut in Alicia Keys’s autobiographical musical.
Best Featured Actor in a Play
WILL WIN
Corey Stoll, “Appropriate”
Should win
Tom Pecinka, “Stereophonic”
Should have been nominated
Will Keen, “Patriots”
Alfred Molina, “Uncle Vanya”
I give Tom Pecinka the “should win,” but all of his “Stereophonic” castmates are deserving, being almost one organism. This is why we need a best ensemble award. See below!
Best Featured Actress in a Play
WILL WIN
Sarah Pidgeon, “Stereophonic”
SHOULD WIN
Kara Young, “Purlie Victorious”
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED
Susan Pourfar, “Mary Jane”
Shannon Tyo, “The Comeuppance”*
Kara Young is nominated for the third year in a row, each role notably different from the last. This one was a comic triumph.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
WILL WIN
Daniel Radcliffe, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Should win
Brandon Victor Dixon, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Sky Lakota-Lynch, “The Outsiders”
Should have been nominated
Reg Rogers, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Michael Urie, “Spamalot”
Why Sky Lakota-Lynch? Check out his performance of the show’s heart-wrenching 11 o’clock number, “Stay Gold.”
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
WILL WIN
Lindsay Mendez, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Should win
Shoshana Bean, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Kecia Lewis, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Should have been nominated
Jenn Colella, “Suffs”
Joaquina Kalukango, “Jelly’s Last Jam”*
I would like to attend a belt-off between Shoshana Bean and Kecia Lewis.
Best Director of a Play
WILL WIN
Daniel Aukin, “Stereophonic”
Should win
Anne Kauffman, “Mary Jane”
Lila Neugebauer, “Appropriate”
Whitney White, “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”
Should have been nominated
Knud Adams, “Primary Trust”*
Eric Ting, “The Comeuppance”*
Danya Taymor, “Jonah”*
Of the 10 nominees in the directing categories, seven are women. That’s quite a breakthrough; last year there were three.
Best Director of a Musical
WILL WIN
Maria Friedman, “Merrily We Roll Along”
Should win
Jessica Stone, “Water for Elephants”
Danya Taymor, “The Outsiders”
Should have been nominated
David Cromer, “Dead Outlaw”*
Joe Mantello, “Here We Are”*
Danya Taymor and Jessica Stone leaned hard into the often underused opportunities of visual storytelling. More of this please!
Best Book of a Musical
WILL WIN
Shaina Taub, “Suffs”
Should win
Rick Elice, “Water for Elephants”
Kristoffer Diaz, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Should have been nominated
David Ives, “Here We Are”*
Itamar Moses, “Dead Outlaw”*
The hardest category to predict because it’s the hardest job to ace. Also the least rewarding. The better it’s done, the less it’s noticed.
Best Score
WILL WIN
Shaina Taub, “Suffs”
Should win
Adam Guettel, “Days of Wine and Roses”
Should have been nominated
Stephen Sondheim, “Here We Are”*
David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna, “Dead Outlaw”*
Heather Christian, “Terce”*
You may argue that Sondheim wrote only half a score. That’s still a 10 in my book.
Best Choreography
WILL WIN
Justin Peck, “Illinoise”
Should win
Camille A. Brown, “Hell’s Kitchen”
Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll, “Water for Elephants”
Should have been nominated
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, “Buena Vista Social Club”*
In addition to creating the choreography with Robb, Carroll staged the beautiful and marvelously integrated circus sequences in “Water for Elephants.”
Best Ensemble
Should win
“Illinoise”
“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”
“Mary Jane”
“Stereophonic”
Other new categories I’d like to see: Best Song. Most Imaginative Animals. Most Convincing Projections. Biggest Wigs. Least Sound.
