Former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck in recent polling as they enter the final leg of the presidential race, as the Democratic nominee appears to be losing ground among Latino and Black voters.
A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll places Harris at 45% and Trump at 44%.
In August, the same poll found that Harris was ahead of Trump 48% to 43% on the heels of the Democratic National Convention. The new survey released Monday questioned 1,000 likely voters by landline and cell phone from Oct. 14-18. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Harris has fallen back in support among Latino and Black voters in the seven weeks between surveys. The new poll found Latino voters now back Trump by 49% to 38%. Black voters prefer Harris by 72% to 17%, but that 55-point edge is significantly less than the advantage Democrats traditionally enjoy.
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Former President Trump smiles during a Hispanic roundtable at Beauty Society on Oct. 12, 2024, in Las Vegas. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
For the subsamples of Latino and Black voters, the survey’s margins of error are plus or minus 9 points, signaling possible repositioning of up to 18 points in one direction or the other.
President Biden benefited from staggering support from Black and Latino voters four years ago. A Pew Research Center analysis found 92% of Black voters and 59% of Latino voters supported Biden in the 2020 race.
Trump has made inroads among Black and Latino voters in the 2024 race by courting men, as he campaigns on the economy and crime.
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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event on Oct.18, 2024 in Grand Rapids, Michigan. (Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)
Observing the shift in Democrats’ traditional edge, the Harris campaign unveiled an economic agenda for Black men last week. It promised small business loans and the legalization of recreational marijuana.
Her campaign also ramped up events targeting Latino and Black voters in battleground states, and former President Barack Obama chastised Black men, claiming they could be hesitant to vote for a woman as president.
In a separate poll conducted across seven battleground states, 47% of respondents said they would definitely or probably back Harris, while 47% said they would definitely or probably support Trump. According to the Washington Post-Schar School survey, 49% of likely voters support Harris, while 48% support Trump.
Among swing states, Trump is performing well in Arizona, while Harris fares best in Georgia.
The poll also surveyed a portion of the electorate in the swing states dubbed “deciders” – people who have not fully committed to a candidate. About 74% of voters in the swing states said they would definitely vote for Harris or Trump – an increase from the 58% who said they had already decided in the spring.
Over a five-month period, uncommitted voters narrowed from 42% to 26%. The latest survey showed 21% of likely voters across the seven states were not fully committed to either Harris or Trump.
According to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research (AP-NORC) poll released on Monday, most registered voters are divided on whether Trump or Harris are better equipped to handle specific economic issues, including unemployment, the cost of groceries and housing, or tariffs.
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The survey found only 38% of registered voters say the national economy is doing well, while 62% of respondents expressed believing the economy is in poor condition.
