The political climate for President Biden is worse this morning than it was just a few days ago.
First, the polls: A New York Times/Siena College poll, released yesterday, shows that Biden is down six points against Donald Trump among likely voters — a three-point drop since his poor debate performance. Other polls show a similar, if slightly smaller, post-debate swing, with the trend against Biden and toward Trump.
Why? One reason is Biden’s age. In the Times poll, the share of voters who say Biden is “too old to be an effective president” rose to 74 percent from 69 percent and included a majority of Democrats. Four years ago, just 36 percent of voters said Biden was too old.
At the same time, more of Biden’s allies have turned against his re-election campaign. Yesterday, Raúl Grijalva of Arizona became the second House Democrat to publicly call on Biden to withdraw from the race. Reed Hastings, the co-founder of Netflix and one of the biggest Democratic donors, called for Biden to make way for “a vigorous Democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous.” Other wealthy donors also believe Biden should step aside, but they have not said as much publicly, to avoid helping Trump.
Biden has taken notice. He has privately told allies that the next few days may determine whether he can salvage his candidacy, according to my colleague Katie Rogers, who covers the White House. He scheduled a rare interview with ABC News tomorrow and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the coming days. He hopes to show that his debate performance was an anomaly, and that he is actually fit for the presidency.
As Katie wrote, Biden knows he is in the fight for his political life. But while he has defied the odds before, he might struggle to mount a comeback this time.
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Biden’s poll numbers have been weak for years, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst. The debate’s most pronounced effect was forcing those close to Biden to address the longstanding concerns.
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For now, Biden insists he will remain the Democratic nominee. “I’m in this race to the end,” he told campaign staff members yesterday, adding, “No one’s pushing me out.” The next few days will be pivotal.
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Yesterday evening, Biden told a group of Democratic governors that he was staying in the race. Despite publicly supporting him, several expressed concerns. One, Janet Mills of Maine, told him that voters didn’t think he was up to running.
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He also told the governors he had a medical checkup after the debate and was fine, Politico reports.
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Biden had lunch with Vice President Kamala Harris, who some Democrats say should replace him as the nominee.
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Democratic congressional leaders are not urging their members to rally behind Biden, but instead to take a position that best suits their districts. This graphic shows what prominent Democrats have said.
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Democrats see benefits (a younger nominee, a potential surge of donations) and risks (an untested candidate, a crash-course campaign) to replacing Biden.
Responses around the country
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Jill Biden, the first lady, tried to reassure Democrats in Michigan at the opening of a Biden campaign office there. Outside, two people held signs calling on Biden to step aside.
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Memes and coconut tree emojis: Harris’s supporters — known as the KHive — are flooding social media with signals that they’re prepared to back her if Biden drops out.
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The House Republicans’ campaign arm is running an ad calling Harris a Biden “enabler.”
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British Election
Betting: The former Toronto Raptors center Jontay Porter, whom the N.B.A. banned in April, is facing federal charges for his role in an apparent sports gambling ring.
ARTS AND IDEAS
It is the Fourth of July in New York City. That means a day for fireworks, sweaty subway rides and family cookouts. But it also means it is time for the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island.
This year’s event, which tests competitive eaters on how many hot dogs they can consume in 10 minutes, promises to be unusually suspenseful. For the first time in almost a generation, the men’s competition has no clear front-runner. Read more about it.
